Blogs on a Plane
The Fifth Column presents Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers #51: Blogs on a Plane, and does a damn fine job of it. A very nice flying experience...
Occasional postings of things that interest me. GO NAVY! BEAT ARMY!
The Fifth Column presents Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers #51: Blogs on a Plane, and does a damn fine job of it. A very nice flying experience...
Why is it, after hosting a Carnival I fall into a period with no motivation to write? I know there are lots of happenings in the world of New Jersey taxes and budgeting, and that they deserve comment. For some reason, I just can't summon the mental energy to do it properly this week.
Is it really the Carnival?
Tags: Carnival
Folks, I wanted this to be an extra-special fiftieth anniversary edition of the Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers. I had all kinds of great plans for a themed carnival, featuring a song parody with links to all the submitted posts.
Two problems arose. One, my song parody just never came together. As a matter of fact, it sucked. Here's a sample, judge for yourselves:
Fifty Ways to Blog New Jersey1
The problem is all inside your head, she said to me
The answer is easy if you take it logically
I'd like to help you in your struggle to be free
There must be fifty ways to blog New Jersey
She said it's really not my habit to intrude
Furthermore I hope my meaning won't be lost or misconstrued
So I repeat myself, at the risk of being crude
There must be fifty ways to blog New Jersey
Fifty ways to blog New Jersey
Refrain:
Just leave her for him, Jim, get a new job, Bob
Don't try a new con, Jon, just listen to me
Trip on the rug, Doug, don't need to discuss much
Pump your own gas, lass, and get yourself free
Watch the space above this post. I'll git-r-done, but not until late today. Sorry, but Real Life™ is getting in the way.
If you had a link you wanted to get in and thought it was too late, well, it isn't.
Feel free to submit it to NJCarnival@gmail.com.
See you later today!
Tags: Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers
I have the honor of hosting the Carnival of the NJ Bloggers this week.
Are you interested in submitting a post to be included in this week's Carnival? All you have to do is to send an email to njcarnival@gmail.com containing a link to one of your posts that you would like included in the Carnival. Or not, but maybe I might pick one of yours anyway. It's really much easier for me if you send me something, and your life should be centered around making my life easier.
Since this is Carnival # 50, I'd like to include at least 50 posts. If you've run across a new blogger from Jersey, please suggest to them that they submit a link.
If I do not hear from you by noon on Saturday, I will assume that you do not wish to be included this week. Don't do like I did last week and wait until 3 minutes before the deadline to submit a link. [Sorry, Anonymous B., but those darn Incas attacked my Greeks in Civ III and I just had to finish exterminating the filthy swine.]
Tags: New Jersey, Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers
No/w/here hosts a festive and friendly potluck Carnival of New Jersey Bloggers #49. Lots of links, good food, and friendly conversation, even between the lefties and righties...
Tags: New Jersey, Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers
The Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers is up over at The Center of New Jersey Life. Sharon does her usual fine job of hosting.
Also, one of my posts was included in the Carnival of the GOP Bloggers! I mentioned this new carnival a few weeks ago. Go check it out.
Tags: Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers, Carnival of the GOP Bloggers
[Welcome, Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers and Carnival of the GOP Bloggers! Thanks for stopping by.]
Thurman Hart, the Xpatriated Texan at BlueJersey.net, writes: Ken is a liar. He's trying to fool us all! Don't let him snow you. Or words to that effect. What he really says is that my post on the State Business Tax Climate Index is "intentionally misleading" and contains "disturbingly inaccurate info."
Let me start by stating that Thurman appears to care about the subjects on which he writes, and is normally polite in his discourse, so when I saw that he had linked to my post, I was encouraged that someone from the left side of the blogosphere wanted to engage in debate on the subject. My encouragement quickly turned to disappointment when I read his introductory remarks. As a former naval officer and Naval Academy graduate, I have always tried to conduct myself honorably. To be called a liar in a public forum is a slap in the face, and is very much unappreciated. While Thurman may disagree with my conclusions about the data, none of the information provided is inaccurate (although I did make one mathematical error, as described below). It is all verifiable at the links I provided to the State Business Tax Climate Index and the Gross State Product Report. (For the true geek, the actual data behind the report on GSP is here.)
Thurman appears to have gone to the data, and includes in his post the growth rates and growth ranks for each state I listed in the top and bottom 10. What I said was that "overall US growth rate was 4.3 percent," "the top 10 states ... hit an average of 4.67 percent," and "the bottom 10 states averaged 3.44 percent." He attempts to refute my analysis by pointing out that two of the top 10 business tax climate states, "Wyoming and Alaska badly underperform," and 60% of the states in the top 10 meet or exceed the national average. In Thurman's view, 60% beating the average isn't good enough. Unfortunately, his view is based on a flawed analysis - only the two states he cites, Wyoming and Alaska, are below the 4.3% national average, while Montana equals it, as shown in this copy of his table (emphasis added).
State Tax Climate Rank Growth Rate Growth Rank Wyoming 1 3.3 40 S. Dakota 2 4.5 20 Alaska 3 3.4 38 Florida 4 5.9 5 Nevada 5 9.3 1 New Hampshire 6 5.4 9 Texas 7 4.6 17 Delaware 8 5.0 12 Montana 9 4.3 25 Oregon 10 4.5 19
Dollars in millions | |||||
State | 2004 Total | Percent Growth 03-04 | 03 Total | 03-04 Growth | Overall Tax Climate Rank |
Wyoming | 23,979 | 3.3 | 23,213 | 766 | 1 |
South Dakota | 29,386 | 4.5 | 28,121 | 1,265 | 2 |
Alaska | 34,023 | 3.4 | 32,904 | 1,119 | 3 |
Florida | 599,068 | 5.9 | 565,692 | 33,376 | 4 |
Nevada | 100,317 | 9.3 | 91,781 | 8,536 | 5 |
New Hampshire | 51,871 | 5.4 | 49,213 | 2,658 | 6 |
Texas | 884,136 | 4.6 | 845,254 | 38,882 | 7 |
Delaware | 54,274 | 5.0 | 51,690 | 2,584 | 8 |
Montana | 27,482 | 4.3 | 26,349 | 1,133 | 9 |
Oregon | 128,103 | 4.5 | 122,587 | 5,516 | 10 |
Top 10 States | 1,932,639 | 5.2% | 1,836,804 | 95,835 | |
Percentage of US | 16.6% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
Dollars in millions | |||||
State | 2004 Total | Percent Growth 03-04 | 03 Total | 03-04 Growth | Overall Tax Climate Rank |
Arkansas | 80,902 | 5.3 | 76,830 | 4,072 | 41 |
Iowa | 111,114 | 5.5 | 105,321 | 5,793 | 42 |
Nebraska | 68,183 | 1.5 | 67,175 | 1,008 | 43 |
Kentucky | 136,446 | 3.7 | 131,578 | 4,868 | 44 |
Maine | 43,336 | 3.9 | 41,709 | 1,627 | 45 |
Vermont | 21,921 | 4.6 | 20,957 | 964 | 46 |
Ohio | 419,866 | 2.6 | 409,226 | 10,640 | 47 |
Rhode Island | 41,679 | 3.5 | 40,270 | 1,409 | 48 |
New Jersey | 416,053 | 3.4 | 402,372 | 13,681 | 49 |
New York | 896,739 | 4.7 | 856,484 | 40,255 | 50 |
Bottom 10 States | 2,236,239 | 3.9% | 2,151,923 | 84,316 | |
Percentage of US | 19.2% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
2003 Economy | 03-04 Growth | |
Top 10 | $ 1,836,804 | $ 95,835 |
Bottom 10 | $ 2,151,923 | $ 84,316 |
Delta | $ (315,119) | $ 11,519 |
% Delta | -14.6% | 13.7% |
[Welcome, Carnival riders! If you find this post enlightening, there's more here and here].
The New Jersey Schools Construction Corporation has published its annual report to the governor and legislature. Paul Nelson of NJ Fiscal Folly provides a nice, simple summary of the document: We're All Doomed, Doomed I Tell You!
Painfully, I've read the whole thing. It's not pretty, but the $12.8 billion cost widely quoted in the press is nothing more than a fantasy. The details of this fantasy start on page 77 of the report, but here's the game they are playing:
Step 1: Take the January 2005 construction cost estimates (CCEs) from the project management firms (PMFs) and add 7.5% escalation for the age of the estimates
Step 2: Add a further 15% "contingency"
Step 3: Add 2% to the design fees to account for restarting the work that was stopped
Step 4: Add 1-1.5% for permit fees, plus 0.25% for "other miscellaneous fees"
Step 5: Add 0.5% for temporary space.
Step 6: Add 2% for Schools Construction Corporation overhead.
Here's a real killer: "PMFs are compensated based on a percentage of the CCE of projects that they are managing." In other words, the PMFs are incentivized to generate construction cost estimates that are as high as possible.
So, in summary, an artificially inflated construction cost estimate is then further inflated by nearly 30%.
After establishing a nice, high baseline, SCC then moves to scare us into buying in now rather than later. They take the baseline, and further inflate it for two ridiculous cases -- waiting five or ten years to start the same projects. They apply an annual 7.5% inflator to the construction costs, and 15% inflation to the land acquisition costs. From page 81:
The proposed 15% adjustment is largely due to the anticipated increased value of real estate (primarily residential) and also takes into account anticipated increased cost for services (outside legal counsel, appraisal, review appraisal, title, relocation and property maintenance). The adjustment for anticipated market conditions is based on the SCC’s experience in all Abbott District market areas except Phillipsburg, Vineland and Millville over the past 5 years. All market segments, as seen in the Market Studies (Residential, Industrial and Commercial), have advanced significantly (largely 15 - 20%) each year since 2001. These studies are based on unaltered sales data from the Multiple Listing Service.Apparently, they haven't been reading Grim over at the Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble. There's always the possibility that Grim is wrong, but no market can go up forever. Take a look at the Camden area, for example, since Camden is an Abbott District. Recently, the market's been climbing at a pretty good clip, based on the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's quarterly home price index (last updated for 3rd quarter 2005).
The Carnival of Education is up over at The EdWahoo. They were kind enough to pick up my post on recent hish school proficiency scores in New Jersey. Lots and lots of links to peruse, covering the gamut of educational issues.
A new Carnival comes to town: the Carnival of the GOP Bloggers. Check it out - simple, short, and very interesting.
Bob at eCache hosts the latest Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers, the 39th and apparently biggest edition yet! I overloaded my browser with tabs trying to open all of the interesting links. Go check it out.
Tags: Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers
Philomathean hosts the 38th edition of the Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers. Good stuff, go read it all!
Updated 3:00 PM: 15th-20th places revealed!
Updated 8:00 PM: 3rd-14th places revealed. Stop by after 10:00 PM to see who was number one!
Updated 10:00 PM: And the most linked carnival blogger is... Gigglechick! In a world full of lefty and righty political bloggers, it's the person trying to make us laugh who gets the most linky love.
In Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers XXXVII, I may have opened a can of worms. My little exercise in link counting and ranking has raised questions about what the rankings mean. Here's what I did.
Step 1 - get a copy of all the previous carnival posts.
Step 2 - grab all of the hyperlinks embedded in each file. This is the painful and repetitive part, so I wrote a little 6-line script in Word to do the work for me.
Step 3 - read the resulting list and eliminate those links that are not part of the actual carnival post. This includes things like blogrolls, archives, comments, and the administrative links at the beginning and end of each post. Content varied widely depending on who was hosting each week, but the link to Enlighten's carnival page and the Technorati tags served as pretty good markers for the beginning and end of real content.
Step 4 - move the whole mess over to Excel for analysis. Clean up inconsistencies, such as links to both dynamobuzz.com and www.dynamobuzz.com.
Step 5 - manipulate the text of the links to separate out the server name, top level domain, etc.
Step 6 - use Excel's Pivot Table to count up the links by blog address.
Rank | Posts Linked | Blog |
20 | 20 | SmadaNek |
20 | 20 | Tami, the One True |
20 | 20 | The Rix Mix |
20 | 20 | The Eternal Golden Braid |
17 | 22 | NJ Conservative |
17 | 22 | KateSpot |
17 | 22 | Armies of Liberation |
16 | 23 | The Art of Getting By |
14 | 24 | Poor Impulse Control |
14 | 24 | The Contrarian |
12 | 26 | Parkway Rest Stop |
12 | 26 | Shamrocketship |
11 | 27 | Sluggo Needs a Nap |
9 | 28 | DynamoBuzz |
9 | 28 | Suzette |
8 | 29 | The Opinion Mill |
6 | 31 | NJ.com |
6 | 31 | The Center of NJ Life |
3 | 32 | Media in Trouble |
3 | 32 | Mister Snitch |
3 | 32 | Enlighten New Jersey |
2 | 39 | Fausta's Blog |
1 | 40 | Gigglechick |
Welcome, my friends, to the 37th Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers. It's been twenty-six weeks since I last inflicted myself on you, and it has taken me this long to recover from the pain of writing so many haikus.
A lot has happened in the last six months, so I decided to take a look at all of the previous carnivals. What I found in the link data was pretty interesting. I had expected there to be a core group of pretty regular contributors, and a few not-so-regulars, but that turned out to be wrong. Our little network already follows a power law, just like the blogosphere at large! There are a few folks with a large number of posts, and a very large number (82) with only a single link in the mix.
A side benefit of counting up these links as the ability to rank each blogs place in our little network. For example, my 20 previous links put Smadanek in a 4-way tie for 20th place of 202 linked blogs. Pretty cool, huh?
Now, Im sure youre all dying to see where your blogs placed in this little unannounced competition, but you will have to wait. We have company! Peter of Mano a Vino Montclair, where wine is the order of the day, joins us for the first time. Peter presents a wealth of useful information, and submitted his post on Favorite Wines Under $10. We'll have to hook Peter up with Mr. Bingley, who has also been known to enjoy a glass of wine or two.
Next up is Noreen Braman of Roderama, whose first carnival visit was just last week. Noreen's two links put her in a pack with 15 other blogs in 105th place, and this little story about a snake sleeping with a hamster will definitely move her up in the standings.
Jay Lassiter and Anonymous B. Nowhere, in the first of five ties this week, sit in 90th place. Jay tells us about his experiences with the military's social support network, and wants to ensure that the government continues to take care of veterans, while A.B.N. laments the loss of a friend.
El Zorro Viejo, coming in at 68, expounds on what he sees as the shortcomings of intelligent design. Meanwhile, MyManMisterC (63rd) comments on the whole Oprah-vs.-James-Frey-thing.
In 58th place, we have Virtual Memories with our first double entry of the week. On the political front, you can read about the Palestinian election; if that doesnt float your boat, then try this little piece about a trip to the movies. [VM was down at press time. Hopefully itll be back up by the time you all read this. Ed]
Our next guest is Tom Wright of the Wright Wing, holding down 53rd position, with his take on new-fangled school security measures.
Before getting into the top 50, Id like to share a little useless trivia with you. In my sick obsession with numbers, analysis, statistics, etc, I found it necessary to break down the links by top-level domain. No surprises here, but .com has everyone else beat by a wide margin: I think the three trailers here (.gov, .edu, and .us) slipped past my screening process.
.com | 176 |
.net | 13 |
.org | 8 |
.gov | 2 |
.edu | 2 |
.us | 1 |
Folks, looks like the Carnival is going to be a bit thin this week -- only 16 links submitted so far. I'll be out beating the bushes today, in between working on the honeydew list and helping son #1 with Cub Scout stuff.
If any of you have links to submit, send them to njcarnival@gmail.com. I expect to post late tonight / early tomorrow morning, so get your links in before midnight!
I am hosting the Carnival of the NJ Bloggers this week, and I can't do it all by myself. I NEED YOUR HELP! All you have to do is to send an email to njcarnival@gmail.com containing a link to one of your posts that you would like included in the Carnival post.1 It would also be really cool if you could send me a link to a post from a New Jersey blog that hasn't been in one of our little carnivals. We can always use a little new blood to strengthen the gene pool.
If I do not hear from you by sometime Saturday night, I will assume that you hate me for my good looks and wonderful writing do not wish to be included this week. However, the Carnival's mail box address remains the same and you can always submit a post any week to be part of that week's Carnival.
More information about the Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers may be read at the Carnival Home Page.
Sharon of The Center of NJ Life hosts a very nice Carnival of New Jersey Bloggers XXXVI. I enjoyed every bit, except the piece about Suzette hanging up her keyboard.
I'll be hosting the next edition of the Carnival, twenty-six weeks after my last go-round. Post your links to the usual email address, njcarnival@gmail.com.
Mamacita (Humor, News & Entertainment for Women Who Can't Be Fooled) hosts the 30th edition of The Carnival of NJ Bloggers. Who knew something as simple as putting together a list of links could get controversial?