SmadaNek

Dear IT people,

2011-03-04T15:08:00.000-05:00

I think it's wonderful that you've discovered how to write a script that will push updates to my work PC. Having a common, supportable configuration is a worthy goal.
Unfortunately, you've yet to discover the fact that my PC has an actual user who is trying to get work done. Sometimes, this user might even be writing profound and important thoughts that our company will sell to its customers.
Given your lack of ability to discern when such activity might be happening, please do assume that it is. That way, you won't be tempted to pop up an absolutely useless dialog box that steals focus away from the task your user is attempting to complete, while simultaneously causing the user in the next cube to scream in frustration, because his train of thought just got derailed too.

New Social Media Site

2010-09-28T20:13:00.000-04:00

Just joined a site called Empire Avenue, seems to be sort of an aggregator of social media linkages with your blog feeds. Has features that let you invest in other people. Will it catch on?

Garden Tour 2010

2010-06-01T23:51:00.002-04:00

DSCN0032
Originally uploaded by kmadams85

Mrs. Adams has built an amazing garden out of our yard, and we've been asked to participate in the Delanco Women's Civic Club annual garden tour. This is one of my favorite photos of the spring.

More here on Flickr.

Blogging from Android

2010-04-20T19:54:00.000-04:00

Recently acquired a Droid and would like to be able to blog from it. Not finding any decent apparently, and the web page does not really lend itself to a mobile device. Suggestions welcome.

Brought to you by the United States Government

2009-12-22T19:51:00.003-05:00

Our Legislative and Executive branches want to "fix" the national health care economy by creating a national health care system. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth has gone into creating several multi-thousand page bills describing the requirements for such a system, and by all accounts the legislators in the majority leadership are quite pleased with themselves.

My family worries about these efforts, because we cannot believe that the government is capable of acting more efficiently with our money than can we. Recently, we were presented with evidence to support that belief, in the form of another large, government-run quasi monopoly, the U.S. Postal Service. You see, in early December we had ordered a gift via an affiliate of Amazon.com. They shipped with a somewhat unique system, UPS Mail Innovations, using UPS for the long-haul from California to New Jersey, and the Postal Service for the last mile of delivery to our door.

The UPS portion of the delivery went pretty smoothly, crossing the country in a day:

Dec 7 2009 Mail Retrieved From Shipper
Dec 7 2009 Received at UPS Mail Innovations Origin R. Cucamonga, CA
Dec 7 2009 Processed at UPS Mail Innovations Origin R. Cucamonga, CA
Dec 8 2009 Transferred to UPS Mail Innovations Destination Logan Township, NJ
Dec 10 2009 Received at UPS Mail Innovations Destination Logan Township, NJ
Dec 10 2009 Manifested (Postage Paid)
Dec 10 2009 Entered USPS Facility SOUTH JERSEY, NJ

Great! Logan Township is only 40 miles from here, we should get our package any time, lots of leeway for wrapping and such. Alas, it was not to be. Since entering the USPS facility in South Jersey, our little package of less than a pound has been recorded in the postal service's tracking system no less than EIGHT times.

Electronic Shipping Info Received, December 10, 2009
Shipment Accepted; December 10, 2009, 5:16 pm, BELLMAWR, NJ 08099

Oh great! I thought. Bellmawr is even closer (25 miles), hope to get this package tomorrow.

Arrival at Post Office, December 12, 2009, 4:33 am, NEW YORK, NY 10013

What? Why did it (1) go to New York and (2) take 36 hours to travel less than 100 miles?

Sorting Complete, December 12, 2009, 9:19 am, NEW YORK, NY 10013
Out for Delivery or Available at PO Box, December 12, 2009, 9:49 am, NEW YORK, NY 10013

So, to whom did they give it for delivery? Given that it is addressed to my home in the 08075 zip code, I am perplexed.

Processed through Sort Facility, December 14, 2009, 1:22 am, NEW YORK, NY 10199

OK, moving in the right direction, I guess. Looks like the carrier returned it and then the oncoming shift Monday morning processed my package.

Processed through Sort Facility, December 16, 2009, 8:10 pm, JERSEY CITY, NJ 07097

Except that they sent it to the wrong sort facility! Jersey City doesn't handle our mail, Bellmawr does!

Processed through Sort Facility, December 22, 2009, 11:29 am, BELLMAWR, NJ 08031

Ah, now we're back in the right neighborhood. If Bellmawr processed it this morning just before lunch, I should expect it tomorrow, right? Oh, wait, remember what happened last time!

Given that something as simple as timely delivery of a small package over a distance of 40 miles escapes the capabilities of a government "enterprise" like the Postal Service, how can we expect that a government mandated "solution" to a problem that doesn't affect 80-90% of the population will be effective? The simple answer is that we cannot. What we can expect is an ever-expanding scope of government until it bankrupts us as a nation.

Valour-IT Auctions

2009-10-31T00:13:00.005-04:00

The annual Valour-IT fundraiser has received some interesting donation items, lead by Team Navy with an excellent selection of books and prints. The auctions are being run on eBay. You can bid on all of these books:

SIGNED 'Command Attention' by Col. Keith Oliver
'Embedded' (in Iraq) by 1st Lt Wesley Gray
'First to Fight' by General Brute Krulak
'Bridge at Dong Ha' by John Miller - An excellent read and a great story about a man who did more than anyone imagined was possible
'Destroyer Captain' by James Stavridis - Lessons from the first command of the current commander of EUCOM
Naval Inst Guide - Combat Fleets of the World - My dog-eared copy from 1990/91 could use a replacement, couldn't yours?
Run Silent, Run Deep by Edward L. Beach - a classic, you need this book in your library
Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. David Zabecki
The Will to Win by Paul Braim

And, what I think is absolutely the coolest item up for auction so far, a lithograph of the Galloping Ghost of the China Coast (picture below), signed by artist Ted Wilbur and RADM E.B. Fluckey, Medal of Honor awardee for his actions in command of USS Barb (SS-220) during World War II.

Go bid now, these items are going to move! All proceeds from these auctions go directly to providing technology to assist our wounded warriors in their recovery.

Rumor has it that more items will be coming as well, so stay tuned...

GO NAVY!

Missile Defense

2009-10-28T11:52:00.007-04:00

Over the past six months, I've had the privilege of supporting the Japanese Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense program in a relatively minor role. My team was responsible for much of the pre-flight analysis that lead up to this:

October 28, 2009
Japan/U.S. Missile Defense Flight Test Successful
The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the United States Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced the successful completion of an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) intercept flight test, in cooperation with the U.S. Navy, off the coast of Kauai in Hawaii. The event, designated Japan Flight Test Mission 3 (JFTM-3), marked the third time that a JMSDF ship has successfully engaged a ballistic missile target, including two successful intercepts, with the sea-based midcourse engagement capability provided by Aegis BMD.

It's always gratifying to see something that works the way the engineers predicted, even more so when you've been involved in the process. BZ to everyone involved!

Project Valour-IT

2009-10-26T18:11:00.002-04:00

Project Valour-IT helps provide voice-controlled/adaptive laptop computers and other technology to support Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines recovering from hand wounds and other severe injuries.

Voice-controlled Laptops - Operated by speaking into a microphone or using other adaptive technologies, they allow the wounded to maintain connections with the rest of the world during recovery.
Wii Video Game Systems - Whole-body game systems increase motivation and speed recovery when used under the guidance of physical therapists in therapy sessions (donated only to medical facilities).
Personal GPS - Handheld GPS devices build self-confidence and independence by compensating for short-term memory loss and organizational challenges related to severe TBI and severe PTSD.

These seemingly small items can make a big difference in the recovery of an injured soldier, sailor, airman, or Marine. Please take a moment to click the thermometer in my right sidebar and donate to the cause through Team Navy! The fund drive is open NOW through Veterans' Day, November 11, 2009.

Battle of the Sibuyan Sea

2009-10-24T22:30:00.002-04:00

Sixty-five years ago today, the US and Imperial Japanese navies fought in the Battle of the Sibuyan Sea, a single day's engagement in the longer Battle of Leyte Gulf. The Japanese battleship Musashi met her doom that day.
Thank God for the bravery of the sailors who fought that day, and may He have mercy on the souls of those who perished.

Health Care Bill before Congress

2009-08-15T16:24:00.006-04:00

OpenCongress.org appears to be an interesting place to read this bill. Everyone needs to read it and understand what its approximately 1,036 pages contain.

I've added a widget in the right column that should take you there, or you can just use this link.

Another interesting way to look at this bill is to parse its content. A useful tool for that purpose, Wordle, generates a graphical depiction of the most common terms in a text. Here are the top 100 words of consequence from the bill:

I think it's very interesting that the most frequently used term is "Secretary," as in the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Most of what will come of this bill is in the hands of a Cabinet member, and the responsibilities created in the bill will add to the power of the executive branch. This will require further scrutiny.

Texting

2009-07-05T00:12:00.001-04:00

Texting
Originally uploaded by kmadams85

So, we got my daughter a cell phone when she entered middle school. Last summer, she discovered texting and ran up an interesting but not painful bill. So we get her a plan that allows 250 messages a month, for the same $5 it would cost to block SMS to her phone.
Money well invested, I thought. Until this month, that is. In the chart, you can see the huge!!! increase in text usage when school let out for summer - from 20 per day to 60 per day, both incoming and outgoing. One thousand, nine hundred seventy-nine since the billing period started on June 8th.
The phone now sits on my desk. There it shall stay, until she presents a plan to pay back the family budget for her wretched excess.

Regaining Contact, the Hard Way

2009-06-19T20:39:00.006-04:00

Galrahn has the latest on the story of USS John McCain and her towed array collision with a Chinese submarine:

These details tend to confirm what many of us previously speculated regarding the incident. It is kind of obvious that when a submarine accidentally rams a towed sonar array, the submarine is being tracked by the ship, although it also suggests the submarine was tracking the ship as well.

This is all interesting from a technical Navy point of view, but one point in the Navy Times' latest article piqued my curiousity because it didn't make sense.

The Associated Press reported that the collision took place 144 miles from Subic Bay, potentially placing it in the Mindoro Strait.

If the incident was in international waters, why would AP conclude that it took place in a strait that is inside the Philippine Archipelago? Where did this incident really take place?
Knowing that Google holds the answers to all questions, I decided to break out my trusty copy of Google Earth. Also, it wasn't clear if AP was reporting statute or nautical miles, so a little plotting was in order:

[Click to enlarge]
The red circle in this plot is 144 nautical miles, while the white is 144 statute miles from the center of Subic Bay. The Mindoro Strait is off to the south, and in my mind was probably not the location of this incident. Interestingly, there appears to be a feature located right on the 144 nautical mile ring, just a bit north of due west from Subic. That's Scarborough Shoal, a small clump of atolls and reefs claimed by both The Philippines and the People's Republic of China.
So, could there be more than just a little BUMPEX going on here? It gets curiouser as you look closer - literally. Take a look at this zoomed-in image of Scarborough Shoal from Google Earth:

Google and its imagery providers don't generally obscure things unless they've been asked to do so by a government. Is there some relationship between this incident and something a government doesn't want people to see? I certainly can't answer that question, but I hope someone else can.

USS Iowa - 20 years

2009-04-19T20:30:00.002-04:00

Hard to believe it's been 20 years since the terrible day that saw forty seven of my shipmates give their lives in service to their country.
I last wrote about Iowa here. I don't think I can ever forget those men, the events of that day, or the weeks that followed.
Captain Fred Moosally's words from the memorial service have always stuck with me:

I remember turret two. I remember their faces as they toiled at their guns, sweating an honest sweat that comes from young men dedicated to a great cause. Who chose to serve, to grow, and to learn with others, while securing a place in history for generations after them. I remember their strong hands as they wielded their great charges with an energy I could marvel at. The energy of their youth which they channeled towards their love of freedom. I remember as they talked among themselves, looking so much like sailors of our past. Sharing the exuberance of the times and the dreams of the future. I REMEMBER TURRET TWO.

Historical Irony

2009-04-09T13:40:00.002-04:00

A friend forwarded this little beauty this afternoon:

Does anyone find it ironic that the ship the Navy dispatched to the Somali coast to deal with the pirate threat is the USS Bainbridge, a ship named after a Navy Captain who in 1803 ran his ship aground while pursuing pirates off the coast of Africa?

This has all happened before...

SECDEF Announces budget for 2010

2009-04-06T14:32:00.003-04:00

Wow. Just wow. Secretary Gates has just announced a major remodeling of the entire Defense budget. I live-blogged as best I could on Twitter, but I'm sure I didn't get it all. Transcript is not yet available. Highlights of the Navy stuff, which I'm sure will be explored in much more detail by Galrahn et al.:

VH-71: dead. Replacement needed but the requirements need to be fixed.
DDG-1000: two ships in Bath, none in Pascagoula. Option for a third.
DDG-51: try to restart the line in Pascagoula, if they can get the right contract terms
LCS: plus one in 2010 (3 total), build the 55-ship program
F-35: accelerate to 30 aircraft in 2010
F/A-18: buy 31 in 2010 (I'm not sure if this is an increase)
More $$$ for SM-3 production
Upgrade six more Aegis ships for BMD
Delay 11th LPD-17 to 2011
Delay MLP to 2011
Delay CG(X) program (and re-scrub the requirements)
Drop to 10 carriers by 2040
Begin a program for the replacement of the Ohio Class SSBNs

I think the move of DDG-1000 to Bath is probably the most significant decision in the short term. I never understood the concept of splitting production of lead ships between two yards, bearing the pain of first-in-class twice for what would necessarily be a small production run.

The market impacts of these announcements are interesting. A major Lockheed program is completed (F-22), and others are cancelled (VH-71, TSAT), but LMT is up 5.6% as I write. Similar big gains are seen across the defense industry -- GD 2.6%, Raytheon 5.0%, Northrop 5.3%, while the Dow is off 1.5%. Even Boeing, which is less dependent on defense, is flirting with positive territory on the news. I think this is probably a reaction to the reduction in uncertainty that was priced into the markets, rather than to any specific program changes.

Update: The transcript is available here and at the USNI Blog.

Handguns

2009-03-15T11:49:00.000-04:00

I am a: Colt model 1911 in 45ACP

What kind of handgun are YOU?

via Lex.

Observation on shipbuilding

2009-03-10T18:53:00.000-04:00

Congressman Gene Taylor (D - MS) is pushing the Navy to get costs under control for its shipbuilding programs or face losing them. The Navy Times, reporting on testimony by RADM William Landay, Program Executive Officer for Ships, closes with a telling quote from the Congressman.

Whatever it takes, Taylor said, the Navy has to force its vendors to be better stewards of public dollars.

“When I walked through the Austal shipyard a few weeks ago I saw absolutely no effort to save the taxpayers’ money,” he said, adding a motorcycle reference: “We’re building Orange County Choppers when we oughta be kicking out Hondas.”

Very interesting comment about a Gulf Coast shipyard from a Gulf Coast Congressman.

Obama Gutting the Navy

2009-01-31T15:34:00.002-05:00

CDR Salamander asks (at his place)

$55 billion? What does the Navy throw on the alter? At the low end, I would think that we will have to eat at least 30% of that - let's call it $18.3 billion that needs to go as a baseline.

His question at the USNI blog gets right to the point: Which child do you sell first?

Lets check the numbers.

According to the 2009 budget (Figure 2 on page 1-14), the planned Navy Department top line budget was $152.8 billion. The 10% cut if applied to all of the services would mean $15.3 billion, taking the budget down to $137.5 billion. Phibian's $18.3 billion would put the top line at $134.5 billion. The lowest Navy top line in the Bush administration budgets was $140.6 billion (constant FY09 dollars). Capabilities will have to be cut. Let's assume that Phibian got it right and the $18.3 number is the real deal. The question is, where?

I'll assume that Marine Corps personnel accounts will go up by 6% to meet President Obama's stated goal of increasing the ground forces, and that Navy personnel accounts will go down to pay that bill. That will take 2.5% out of the active account and 10% out of the reserves. Combined with the pay rate increases, a 2.5% funding cut is probably a 6% end strength reduction, from the current 337K down to about 311K.

Next, whack 25% from MILCON and housing accounts. This saves us $1.2 billion, but will be nearly impossible to sell in a Congress dependent on those accounts.

Six percent increases in Marine Corps O&M (to support the 6% increase in personnel expenses) mean we need to cut 20% from Navy Reserve O&M and 10% from the active side. This results in a net savings of $3.4 billion (about 10%), so now our top line budget is down by $4.6 billion. This leaves $13.7 billion that must come from either procurement or R&D funds. Twenty percent from R&D would be about $3.9 billion, so the remaining $9.2 billion has to come out of procurement.

Level loading that $9.2 billion across the procurement accounts, we would need to cut each by 24%. That means the cuts would be broken down along the following lines:

Aircraft - $3.5 billion
Shipbuilding and Conversion - $3.1 billion
Other Procurement - $1.3 billion
Weapons - $0.9 billion
National Defense Sealift Fund - $0.5 billion
Marine Corps - $0.4 billion
Ammunition - $0.2 billion

Achieving these reductions is going to be very difficult, and will disrupt ongoing contracts in significant ways. Take aircraft procurement as an example. To cut $3.5 billion, we could eliminate all of the non-combat aircraft, and still have to cut 40 out of 155 combat aircraft. Spares and Support equipment costs would probably have to go up because of the additional wear and tear on the existing fleet.

Shipbuilding and Conversion is probably even harder to cut than aircraft. The unit quantities are so low right now that deferring a ship for a year just increases its net cost. The FY09 new construction account was $11.1 billion for seven ships. Killing the FY10 DDG (either flavor) and the 10 ^th LPD 17 is probably the only viable option to get $3.1 billion.

We need $1.3 billion out of OPN. The biggest lines available there are ship support equipment ($1.7 billion) and communications equipment ($2 billion). A lot of those dollars are related to shipbuilding, so it may be that they come down naturally if we cut ships. $900 million from weapons procurement can be approached if we cut all of our 2009 tactical missile and torpedo purchases in half, or if we forgo a year of Trident II upgrades and make moderate cuts to other programs.

Whatever approach our naval leadership takes in response to the president's direction, it is going to be painful. Making cuts like these while the military is still fighting a war is irresponsible if not dangerous. And as I pointed out in my previous post, it is a false savings. Eliminating billions from defense procurement only to shift those funds into unemployment accounts is a net reduction in the productivity of the American economy, and a huge cut to the military power of the United States.

To the good Commander, I'm afraid the answer may be "all of them."

Defense Budget Cut 10%

2009-01-31T11:40:00.004-05:00

The problem: cut 10% from the military budget. How is it possible to slash $55 billion from our national defense accounts? The president has stated as one of his goals the need to increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps. If that's to be realized, then his staff will provide some direction to Defense on how the cuts are to happen. I suspect they will think in terms of budget categories rather than services first. The distribution of Total Obligation Authority (TOA) may be able to give a starting point. Operations and Maintenance and Military Personnel make up 59% of the budget, so if they are left essentially unchanged the bulk of the cuts will fall to RDT&E and Procurement. (click for larger image)

I took a swag at one scenario, where the ground force growth increases personnel funding by about 2% in 2010 and O&M goes down by about 1%. To get to a $55 billion cut with those assumptions, each of the remaining accounts has to go down by 26%. In that case, we are likely to see $27 billion out of procurement and $21 billion out of RDT&E. (click for larger image)

What's the impact of that size cut? Twenty-six billion dollars out of the procurement budget, based on 2007 numbers, would eliminate 62% of Lockheed, 81% of Northrop Grumman, 95% of General Dynamics, or 122% of Raytheon. Add on half of the RDT&E cut (since the government labs do quite a bit of research), and you could put half of Raytheon out of work again. Looking at the number of people employed by these companies, that size cut will result in the elimination of between 122,000 and 137,000 jobs.

It's a good thing the “stimulus” package adds $36 billion in expanded unemployment “benefits” to make up for the $36 billion in valuable work that will be lost here. I know how important it is for the Democrats to make us all dependent on the government, and moving those highly-skilled defense workers from productive careers to the dole is just the ticket.

GAO Reports on Weapon Systems

2008-12-22T22:58:00.002-05:00

In much discussion of US weapons systems, the Government Accountability Office is often cited as a source of information on costs, risks, and performance. For the basic facts, I think this is a good thing; they have access to data from multiple primary sources, and present it clearly.
That said, I have some concerns about their ability to present program assessments - their opinions - without spin. All too often, a report seems to lean toward the conclusions desired by the Congressman who requested it. Reports favorable of weapons systems acquisition programs seem rare, probably because no one really cares when things are going well.
My concern lead me to dig into the GAO archives, searching along the lifetime of the Aegis Weapon System since it has been in service for so long and is regarded as quite successful. What I found was quite interesting. First up, a June 12, 1980 report of the Comptroller General to Congress on Issues Identified in 21 Recently Published Major Weapon System Reports. This summary, written whe the Aegis weapon system was in limited production and the then-DDG-47 lead ship had started construction, expressed concerns about several key areas:

Foremost are Aegis availability problems, software reliability, ship weight, reduced antisubmarine warfare capability, and ship vulnerability.

The concern about ASW was the most interesting of the bunch, given the current debates about Littoral Combat Ship capabilities:

REDUCED DDG-47 ANTISUBMARINE CAPABILITY
The DDG-47 will not have its planned full antisubmarine warfare capability when it is deployed. Neither the Tactical Towed Array Sonar (TACTAS) nor the LAMPS III helicopter is yet in production and will not be available until the follow ships are built.

The next report, Opportunities for Improving Management of Navy's Aegis Cruiser Program, was issued in February 1981. This report concluded that "serious questions surround [the Aegis Weapon System's] readiness to support naval carrier battle groups." This conclusion appears to be drawn based on the facts that the full system had never before been deployed, that "much of the weight allowance for the planned weapon system [had] been consumed," and that the program office had selected a power inverter for the first ship.
A report in February 1983 concluded that "the AEGIS combat system was not adequately tested before it was commissioned in January 1983" and notes that such testing was scheduled for May-September of that year.
Cost and schedule issues with the DDG-51 class were detailed in January 1990. Between the 1983 report on combat system testing and the cost issues for DDG-51, I found nothing on issues with the capability of the Aegis cruisers.
I think this is interesting, because it shows that given the right set of conditions, the Navy was able to manage and deliver a robust capability, even when the watchdogs found fault with the design and implementation of the first in class. Lets hope that they can replicate those conditions for LCS, and provide the fleet with a ship that performs its assigned missions remarkably well and with little publicity.

Go NAVY!

2008-12-06T11:36:00.001-05:00

BEAT ARMY!

Piracy!

2008-11-16T09:23:00.000-05:00

It seems that to catch a pirate, one must think like a pirate. The Coast Guard seems to have taken that a step further, and their blogging team for the Valour-IT competition is acting like a pirate crew. They've hijacked the other teams' thermometers, and they are demanding ransom.
Fortunately, you can still track (and build on) the superior might of the Navy team via this:

One wonders if the Commandant is paying attention to the creativity and ingenuity being displayed by "his" supporters. Their actions, in the spirit of a friendly competition

Valour-IT

2008-11-11T12:31:00.004-05:00

As I've done each of the last several years, I am supporting the Valour-IT fund drive. This project provides laptops so that injured service members can reconnect to the world outside of their medical facilities.

The project came from the experience of Major Chuck Ziegnefuss, and armor officer and military blogger who was wounded in Iraq. Chuck, who blogs at From my position... On the way!, has said that using a voice-activated laptop "was the first time I felt whole since I’d woken up wounded in Landstuhl."

Many soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have been helped by this program over the years, but there is still a need for more funds. Please support our Navy team by clicking the image below and making a tax-deductible donation. Our goal is $25,000, and we are only one tenth of the way there.

Cost Growth in Shipbuilding

2008-10-27T13:22:00.000-04:00

It seems that western navies are not the only ones having trouble keeping costs under control. According to an opinion piece in RIA Novosti, "Project 20380 ship - the corvette Steregushchy - has gone up in price during its construction from 1.8 billion to 5 billion rubles" -- 177% over the initial estimate.

Piracy a legal problem?

2008-10-10T11:01:00.001-04:00

Over at Information Dissemination, Galrahn has an informative and interesting post about one of my favorite subjects: A Team Effort at Sea, A Legal Problem Looms. Russia has sent a frigate to the Gulf of Aden to work with the US and EU in combating piracy. Galrahn commends the cooperative approach, but points out that there is a significant question of what to do with the pirates.

The world is in desperate need of a legal framework for dealing with pirates captured. France has a legal framework for dealing with pirates, and several Somalians will serve time in a French prison because France has the political will to carry that obligation without an international legal system. Many in the world require a more international legal approach, and the foundations for such a legal framework would come through international organizations like the United Nations.
Without the step of creating a legal body to serve as an enforcer of international law against piracy, whether it is conducted like war crimes tribunals or some other framework, response may indeed turn out to be inconsistent. The Russians may be more like France, and take prisoners home to face justice in a Russian court, but we have already seen the Danes release pirate prisoners on the beach.
If Americans have a serious desire to stop piracy, the action to be taken is political and begins in the UN. There is almost no public advocacy for this step, and it could be that Gitmo is a reason why this administration lacks the political will to call for such a system. Without that political action towards building an international legal system to deal with pirates, results may indeed be inconsistent.

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea provides a framework for states to deal with this issue in Part VII, Article 105 (emphasis added).

On the high seas, or in any other place outside the jurisdiction of any State, every State may seize a pirate ship or aircraft, or a ship or aircraft taken by piracy and under the control of pirates, and arrest the persons and seize the property on board. The courts of the State which carried out the seizure may decide upon the penalties to be imposed, and may also determine the action to be taken with regard to the ships, aircraft or property, subject to the rights of third parties acting in good faith.

Unfortunately, Article 106 muddies the waters with this: "Where the seizure of a ship or aircraft on suspicion of piracy has been effected without adequate grounds, the State making the seizure shall be liable to the State the nationality of which is possessed by the ship or aircraft for any loss or damage caused by the seizure." This clause effectively ties the hands of the United States, since every "human rights" advocacy group will attempt to clog up the courts to fight for the "right" of the filthy pirates to steal from other people.
This problem, however, is not a legal one, per se. The U.S. Constitution grants the Congress the power (in Article I, Section 8), to "grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water." Congress has, in fact, done so. For example, 18 USC 1651 states clearly that "Whoever, on the high seas, commits the crime of piracy as defined by the law of nations, and is afterwards brought into or found in the United States, shall be imprisoned for life." Section 1653 further clarifies how this applies to aliens engaged in piracy, and calls for the same penalty.
We have the legal means to deal with the issue. We don't seem to have the political will to enforce our own laws, which are well-supported by so-called international law in the case of pirates.

Mike on the Mend: In Memoriam

2008-10-07T12:00:00.001-04:00

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that my USNA classmate, Colonel Mike Stahlman, had been seriously injured while on duty in Iraq. Unfortunately, the best the Navy doctors in Bethesda could do was not enough; Mike passed this Sunday, with his wife Kim by his side.
I had not seen Mike in many years, but I find myself now remembering him as a Midshipman - full of energy, enthusiastic, a natural leader. I imagine that those qualities did not diminish with time.

Here's health to you and to our Corps
Which we are proud to serve;
In many a strife we've fought for life
And have never lost our nerve;
If the Army and the Navy
Ever look on Heaven's scenes;
They will find the streets are guarded
By United States Marines.

Semper Fi, Mike. You will be missed.

Mike on the Mend

2008-09-23T22:02:00.000-04:00

I recently learned that a classmate, Col. Mike Stahlman, USMC, suffered a pretty severe head injury while on duty in Iraq. He's back in the states now, and recovering slowly with the help of the Navy docs and his family. A blog with information on his recovery ups and downs is being kept up by a family friend at Mike on the Mend.
Please say a prayer for Mike and his family. If your means allow, a fund has been set up to help the family through their ordeal. While the Marines are meeting most all of the family's needs right now, that may not always be the case.

Stahlman Family Fund
c/o Joe Matza
305 Glen Echo Lane, Unit N
Cary, NC 27518

What is this blog about?

2008-09-09T21:35:00.001-04:00

With some help from Wordle:

The future?

2008-08-30T18:37:00.002-04:00

Speaker of the House
President of the Senate
Both women? Sounds fun!

Force Structure Required to Execute the Maritime Strategy

2008-08-28T21:00:00.000-04:00

I've been delayed a bit by real life in completing the assignment laid out by Galrahn at Information Dissemination, but now I can report some progress.
In my last post, I laid out the tasks required by the Maritime Strategy and the assumptions I would use in filling those tasks. The basic requirement is for two continuous forward deployed elements (WestPac and IO), continuous presence in partnership stations and other commitments, and the ability to win our nation's wars at sea while supporting efforts ashore.
For the forward deployed elements, I built CSGs and ESGs based on those we currently have, but reduced the slight excess in missile power found in some CSGs by adding a 5th-rate FFG of 32 cells in place of an extra DDG.

Based on my 2:1 assumption for continuous deployers, along with 85% operational availability, the force structure to support this commitment is 28.24 DDGs, 14.12 CGs, and 7.06 CVNs, SSNs, FFGs, LHDs, LPDs, and LSDs. (I'll deal with the fractional ships at the end of the analysis).

The next commitment I would address is the partnership stations, where we use various means of soft (and hard) power to influence events but don't need to be fighting battles. We still need some battle force missiles available in each of the regions, but nowhere near what the CSG or ESG require. I used existing commitments, along with some needs that I see, to define these six stations:

Standing NATO Maritime Groups 1 & 2. Currently filled by single DDGs, continue this commitment and add an LCS to each group.
Fourth Fleet. We currently deploy there ad hoc, with narrowly tailored missions. I believe we should have a more robust presence, and would pair an FFG with an LCS in the Caribbean, Atlantic, and Pacific. I would also provide an LSD with a load of four M80 Stiletto to support small-craft missions and potentially special operations.
East and West Africa. Each of these regions could benefit from the persistent presence of the US flag, but they don't need high-end battleships for the job. I would form a group for each region, including 1 FFG, 3 LCS, and 1 LSD/M80 unit as in Fourth Fleet.
Seventh Fleet. In addition to the deployed power of the ESG and CSG, we need the ability to interoperate with our partners in the region on a level close to their own in terms of ship size and capability. We also need more ships because the distances to be covered are just so big. A three-frigate group, with an LSD/M80 team, would give us the ability to show the flag in more places at once, without driving the carrier group all over the place to meet commitments.

The deployed force to cover these stations, as shown in the table, is 8 FFG, 11 LCS, 4 LSD, 12 M80 and 2 DDGs. Applying the same factors as above, we would need 28.24 FFG, 38.82 LCS, 14.12 LSD, and 56.47 M80.

The final piece of the puzzle is the power-projection and sea control force, which is basically the surge capability to fight a war if needed. I based this force structure on the assumption that it would fall in on the forward deployed force, adding five CSGs, an amphibious assault Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB), and a Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) in the follow-on echelon. The MEB lift analysis was a bit simplistic, based on rotary-wing aircraft spots for the LHD and AAV capacity for the LPD. I also assumed that the fixed-wing strike-fighters of the MEB would deploy with one of the five carriers, and that two SSGNs would be needed to bulk up the initial striking capacity of the force and support the special operators.
The MEF lift was also simplified a bit by using the capacity of Maritime Prepositioning Squadron ONE (MPSRON-1) as a starting point. That squadron has about 750k square feet of rolling stock, 2,800 containers, and 18 million gallons of JP-5. I assumed that a MEF would require about 3.5 times the lift needed for a MEB, then distributed that load across LMSRs (T-AKR), container ships (T-AK), and transport oilers (T-AOT). The oilers might just be the most important part of the operation, and would need to shuttle continuously into the theater to sustain the MEF unless some other arrangement could be made.

Overall, these three requirements add up to a fairly large fleet. I've added up the fractional ship requirements from above, then rounded up to the next integer to determine my total needs.

There are some gaps in this analysis. For example, I did not include replenishment ships for the fleet assets, and I did not include separate assets for the theater ballistic missile defense mission. These numbers are fairly consistent, in terms of total ships, with the US Navy's basic construct of today. The biggest changes:

the need for a new class of 5th-rate frigate, which could be met by one of the LCS multi-mission combatant designs
the need for significantly more amphibious lift - LSDs as motherships to M80-sized small craft
a lot fewer destroyers, which are currently filling the role of the 5th-rate

In my next post, I'll lay out a cut at the FYDP build plan to start moving toward this force structure. I don't believe it is achievable in the 5-year window we've targeted, but we could make some significant progress along the way.

Shipbuilding to Support Strategy

2008-08-25T22:43:00.003-04:00

The Navy's "Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower" provides an overview of the capabilities needed for the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard to fulfill their responsibilities to the nation:

Guided by the objectives articulated in the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, National Military Strategy and the National Strategy for Maritime Security, the United States Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard will act across the full range of military operations to secure the United States from direct attack; secure strategic access and retain global freedom of action; strengthen existing and emerging alliances and partnerships and establish favorable security conditions.

The heart of the document, as it applies to the Navy in particular, is entitled "Maritime Strategic Concept." Many (if not all) of the stated capabilities and tasks in this section have some impact on the force structure, and thus the shipbuilding plan, needed to successfully execute the strategy. Here's my take on those impacts.

Overview

U.S. maritime forces will be characterized by regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task forces with the combat power to limit regional conflict, deter major power war, and should deterrence fail, win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint or combined campaign.

Required:

ability to keep a discrete amount of combat power, continuously forward deployed (limit/deter)
ability to surge the amount of forward combat power on short notice (win)

Persistent, mission-tailored maritime forces will be globally distributed in order to contribute to homeland defense-in-depth, foster and sustain cooperative relationships with an expanding set of international partners, and prevent or mitigate disruptions and crises.

Required:

forward forces must be powerful enough to act alone, but small enough to provide multiple layers of defense to the US - forming the Mahanian battle line to force the conclusive battle isn't an option
forward forces must fit in with international partners (e.g., not all battleships)

The Details

A. Regionally Concentrated, Credible Combat Power

Credible combat power will be continuously postured in the Western Pacific and the Arabian Gulf/Indian Ocean to protect our vital interests, assure our friends and allies of our continuing commitment to regional security, and deter and dissuade potential adversaries and peer competitors.

Required:

two discrete, independent sets of forward forces, always deployed

Limit regional conflict with forward deployed, decisive maritime power

Where conflict threatens the global system and our national interests, maritime forces will be ready to respond alongside other elements of national and multi-national power, to give political leaders a range of options for deterrence, escalation and de-escalation. Maritime forces that are persistently present and combat-ready provide the Nation’s primary forcible entry option in an era of declining access, even as they provide the means for this Nation to respond quickly to other crises.

Required:

each forward center must have enough striking power to defeat regional access threats and provide a forcible entry option to the nation

Deter major power war

We will pursue an approach to deterrence that includes a credible and scalable ability to retaliate against aggressors conventionally, unconventionally, and with nuclear forces.

Required:

each forward center must have a first strike capability and credible enough staying power to strike back against the enemy in the event he strikes first - drives increased defensive and offensive capability
these forward centers might not be able to win on their own after taking the first shot, but must be able to stay in the fight

Win our Nation’s wars

In times of war, our ability to impose local sea control, overcome challenges to access, force entry, and project and sustain power ashore, makes our maritime forces an indispensable element of the joint or combined force. This expeditionary advantage must be maintained because it provides joint and combined force commanders with freedom of maneuver. Reinforced by a robust sealift capability that can concentrate and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Required:

ability to establish and maintain regional sea control by eliminating anti-access threats
enough assault lift for the expected maritime contribution to the land combat plan
enough immediately available strategic lift capacity to close initial forces within xx days
enough quickly available strategic lift capacity to keep up the flow of materiel for 6 months; includes replacement for potential combat losses among the immediate strategic lift

Globally Distributed, Mission-Tailored Maritime Forces

The Sea Services will establish a persistent global presence using distributed forces that are organized by mission and comprised of integrated Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard capabilities. This global distribution must extend beyond traditional deployment areas and reflect missions ranging from humanitarian operations to an increased emphasis on counter-terrorism and irregular warfare.

Contribute to homeland defense in depth

Identify and neutralize threats as far from our shores as possible

Required:

Surveillance assets in ports of origin for commercial shipping
Continuous surveillance of approaches to US ports a minimum of xx hours out

Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners

Expanded cooperative relationships with other nations will contribute to the security and stability of the maritime domain for the benefit of all. Although our forces can surge when necessary to respond to crises, trust and cooperation cannot be surged.
Additionally, the Sea Services must become adept at forging international partnerships in coordination with the other U.S. services and government departments. To this end, the Global Maritime Partnerships initiative seeks a cooperative approach to maritime security, promoting the rule of law by countering piracy, terrorism, weapons proliferation, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities.

Required - continuous commitment of forces to regions other then the Gulf and WestPac

Standing NATO Maritime Groups (2)
West Africa (Another numbered fleet some day?)
4th Fleet

Summary of the Required Capabilities

To implement the strategy, the sea services "must collectively expand the core capabilities of U.S. seapower" to reach the goals for peacetime engagement and major combat operations. Non-specifically the document calls for an expansion of forward presence, deterrence, sea control, power projection, maritime security, humanitarian assistance, and disaster response. All of those things are covered in the required capabilities stated above. In order to get to a force level, however, we need to make some assumptions about what types of assets can deliver the capabilities we need, and also about how we want to distribute those capabilities.
1. The "discrete, independent sets of forward forces, always deployed" can be satisfied by today's Carrier Strike Group and Expeditionary Strike Group together in a region. They provide a visible presence in the area, they have the ability to establish localized sea control, and they can project soft or hard power ashore as the situation warrants. The continuous surveillance and area battle force missile count of the ESF establish a baseline for sea control, while the combined power of the air wing, battle force missiles and MEU establish the baseline for power projection. CSG missiles = 350; ESG missiles = 300 (based on current deployed groups listed here).
2.a. The ability to establish regional sea control in support of winning our nation's wars requires multiple strike groups, primarily due to the surveillance area a single group can cover but also limited by the reach of battle force missiles.
b. The forcible entry option from the sea requires at least a Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) Assault Echelon - Regimenal Landing Team, Marine Air Group, Brigade Service Support Group.
c. The following forces behind the MEB are at least the size of a Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) - Marine Division (reinforced), Marine Air Wing, Force Service Support Group.
d. The sustainment effort after forcible entry will continue using available lift for up to 180 days before normal commercial lift can begin to take over the flow. That sustainment effort must support not only the MEF + MEB, but an Army Corps and an Air Expeditionary Force. The primary drivers for this lift are Class V and Class III.
3. Each Global Maritime Partnership station requires the assignment of at least one ship full time, and these commitments will grow from those identified above. The types may vary depending on the particular needs of the station. Assume that the total commitment is six ships.
4. Continuous requirements (1) and (3) each need two others in the pipeline to allow for normal rotations.
5. Major maintenance planned for any one conventional ship consumes 15% of its service life (e.g., 4.5 years over 30), 20% for a nuke.
6. Aircraft carrier and air wing force levels are outside the scope of this analysis.

So with all that out of the way, now I'm ready to lay out the total force requirements to satisfy the requirements. Unfortunately, that won't happen today. Stay tuned!

Fantasy Shipbuilding is not like Fantasy Football

2008-08-25T22:37:00.002-04:00

Galrahn has laid down a challenge to Naval bloggers concerning the current shipbuilding plan:

"Given Huntington's advice, the Navy's existing plan, the operational considerations, the Maritime Strategy, and $35 [sic] billion over 5 years... what would be your shipbuilding plan, and why? The FY09-FY13 plan the Navy released in this budget year can be found here for comparison. Remember, we are talking about 5 years from FY10 - FY14 here, but it should be part of a larger strategy."

So far, Galrahn has provided his own plan, in which he emphasizes adding sealift and motherships over more battleships like the Arleigh Burke or Zumwalt classes. He also alters the Navy's LCS plans to purchase multi-mission combatants based on the same hulls, creating some sixth-rates to balance out the line of battle. In the process, he exceeds the $65 billion budget by 15%, which makes me think he's missed something.

Mike Burleson at New Wars takes a different approach:

Notice my emphasis on littoral warships, which I think is where the Navy needs to be for now. A total freeze on Big Ship production would ensue with FY10, and several classes would be delayed or canceled outright. None of the poorly defended and too costly DDG-1000s would ever hit the water in my budget. Ever!

Mike's plan buys 301 ships and craft in the five-year period; it includes 20 Virginia-class SSNs, 25 HSVs, 50 Sea Fighters, 200 Stiletto fast attack craft (FAC), and six Large Medium Speed RO/RO ships.

Updated (8/26 07:40): Moose at Theory on Everything chimes in with his thoughts. In addition to the Navy, Moose includes the commitment to Coast Guard resources - the first forward thinker I've seen make this link. He's got some other good ideas in there as well.

~~Both~~ All three proposals are interesting changes to the fleet composition, and would add capabilities that the United States doesn't currently possess. I have gut-reaction disagreements with both conceptual fleets as proposed, but I'm closer to Galrahn's position than Mike's. Galrahn gives us a change in emphasis and rebalances existing capabilities, while Mike takes a giant leap toward a sea denial rather than a sea control fleet.

The shipbuilding plan, as Galrahn noted, has to be "part of a larger strategy." One of the key criticisms of the Navy's plan is that it does not tie to the Navy's own "Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower." Compounding the problem, the strategy does not discuss the specific means of execution.

The first task in building a plan, for any effort, is to understand the desired end state. The strategy provides that end state as a set of capabilities and tasks for the Maritime Force, each of which has some force structure implication. By matching up the capabilities needed with the current (and projected) fleet, we can develop some recommendations on modifying the shipbuilding plan to achieve the ends desired.

My take on the required capabilities, gaps in the current plan, and a possible solution is coming up in a later post.

The Barak Obama Vice Presidential Selection Process ...

2008-08-24T21:33:00.001-04:00

... in haiku.

Need a running mate
who will make me look like more
than a neophyte.

Reach into the past?
Al Gore has experience.
But George Bush beat him.

Could be I will pick
Kathaleen Sebelius.
Nah. Wes Clark wants her.

Senator Clinton.
I beat the pantsuit off her.
No way she gets it.

Fast Eddy Rendell?
Could shore up Pennsylvania,
but he endorsed Her.

I like that Tim Kaine
but Republicans would shout
"It rhymes with Hussein!"

Bayh is pretty good.
Indiana's a Red State
Can he help me win?

I pick Joe Biden
to run for Vice President
cuz he's an old dude.

Exciting, Historic, But a Message Is Sent

2008-08-24T15:53:00.002-04:00

From DelawarePolitics.net:

"Barack Obama has made an excellent choice in Joe Biden, for many reasons, and it is a proud day for Delawareans and the Bidens. A big congratulations go out to Joe, Jill, Hunter, Beau, Ashley, the Owens family and the extended Biden clan.

That said, there is a message in all of this.

When faced with an important choice between change (Sebelius, Kaine) and experience (Bayh, Biden), Barack Obama chose experience.

So should you."

They almost make it too easy, don't they?

Fighting Piracy

2008-08-24T10:38:00.004-04:00

Mike Burleson at New Wars writes this morning in The Jihad Goes to the Sea, responding to Galrahn:

Somehow the mighty Western navies see anti-piracy as beneath them, which is remarkable since in years past they collectively managed to handle outbreaks quite well. We often forget that the vaunted Golden Age of Piracy in the early 1700s was short lived when the Royal Navy got involved to stamp it out. Later the Barbary Pirates were easily suppressed after America and Britain finished fighting one another in the War of 1812.

I think if the US and her allies can humble themselves a while, they could easily end this scourge while it is mostly contained in the Western Indian Ocean. Taking the counter-insurgency lesson learned after much trial and error on land and applying it to the sea, the Navy might just find a renewed mission and favor with the public, which it has been desperately seeking since the Cold War.

Mike is right, the scourge can be ended. As sailors, we recognize the threat that pirates pose to freedom of communication on the seas, and know instinctively that they must be eliminated. It is not beneath a sailor to kill a pirate, and the problem is one entirely of national will.

The young American nation sent its Navy after the Barbary pirates because her vital national interests (i.e., the ability to freely trade in the Mediterranean and eastern Atlantic) were threatened. The Royal Navy motivation was the same, except that they made a global rather than local commitment.

The United States and her allies don't need to "humble themselves a while," they need to recognize that (a) pirates are a threat to global commerce wherever they operate, and (b) navies, not police and lawyers, are best suited to the task of eliminating global threats on the seas.

The real challenge to this will be convincing the American public that their national interests are threatened, because so little international shipping rides in American-flagged or American-owned hulls. According to the data on the Maritime Administration web site, only 1.47% of the total deadweight tons in the world fleet sail under the US flag on 286 ships; 4.26% of the world tonnage capacity is US-owned - 207 dry bulk, 52 container ships, 69 RO/RO, 318 tankers, and 38 general cargo ships. Given that most of the US-flagged fleet is likely limited to service between US ports, their risk of a pirate encounter is extremely low, and the American-owned ships in international trade are likely operated with foreign crews.

The clear and present danger to world freedom just doesn't register on the American consciousness yet. It will take a concerted effort by the national leadership to inform and persuade them. I'm afraid that the influential bandwidth needed for this effort just doesn't exist in Washington today, especially with an election looming.

Delanco School District Election

2008-04-16T07:35:00.004-04:00

Yesterday, the voters of Delanco chose to accept my offer of volunteer service on the school board. Thank you! I'll do my best to represent the interests of the entire township over the next three years. If you ever have an issue regarding the schools, I'd be happy to discuss it with you. My email address is kmadams85 AT gmail.com, and I am listed in the local phone book. You can also come to the board meetings the second Wednesday of each month, 7:30 PM, at Pearson School.
The voters also rejected the proposed school budget by a margin of 200-158. I'm not surprised, given the heavy anti-tax sentiment prevalent in the state and township right now.
Is it more than that? Are the voters of Delanco really rejecting the budget as a general protest against more taxation? This budget increased property tax on the average township homeowner by $38 for the general fund, and $105 for servicing the debt approved in a bond referendum several years ago.
If you are a Delanco voter, and voted either for or against the tax levy, please let me know why. We will be negotiating potential changes to the levy with the Township Committee, so you have more opportunity for input in the coming weeks.

Wow

2008-02-14T18:21:00.002-05:00

Has it really been almost six months since my last post here? Time flies.

Life development - I have on my desk a nominating packet to run for Delanco School Board. It needs to be submitted by the 25th of February. Given that I've been going to the school board meetings as a member of the public for about six years, I think it's time I volunteered to serve.

Politics, Gender, and Bias

2007-08-16T10:11:00.000-04:00

Michelle Malkin notes the search for Ellen Goodman's "intrepid graduate student" in trying to gain a better understanding Goodman's characterization of the blogosphere as a "Boys' Club." It seems that Goodman has data to support her analysis, but isn't willing to share it.

I sometimes consider myself an “intrepid graduate student,” although I do have a day job as well. For fun, I play a game called Blogshares that uses categorized blogs as a trading device. The players in the game vote on the blogs in the database, and it is actively maintained to try to keep things current. Gender categories are based on self-identification by the blogger, and where it isn’t clearly stated we don’t add the blog to a gender category. Blogs with no posts in the last six months are generally eliminated from the database by the players, although that does tend to lag. The database has something on the order of 6,200 categories, which you can find here.

The fun thing about all this is that the data is highly searchable, and this page lets you search for blogs in multiple categories, like Male, Female, Politics, etc. I did a little research this morning after seeing Michelle's item, and came up with some interesting results:

Category	Total Blogs	Male	Female	Delta (Male vs. Female)
All Blogs	6,357,524	37,620	36,171	4.0%
Politics	3,765	1,300	317	310.1%
Conservatism	684	211	65	224.6%
Liberalism	755	227	93	144.1%
Right Wing Politics	398	115	37	210.8%
Feminism	115	5	79	-93.7%
Progressive	541	172	55	212.7%
Democratic Party	39	14	7	100.0%
Republican Party	34	14	3	366.7%
Life	7,386	1,938	3,300	-41.3%
Journal	11,810	3,038	4,633	-34.4%

What conclusions can we draw from this? I’d say that

(1) Men in general are about as likely as women to maintain a blog, give or take 4%

(2) More men than women keep political blogs, by a factor of 3:1, and this is more-or-less true across the political spectrum. The Feminism category, unsurprisingly, breaks the pattern.

(3) More women than men blog about life or keep a journal online, by a significant 30%-40%

Are these differences a symptom of malice, as Ms. Goodman implies? Hardly. It seems pretty clear to me that this is a difference in passion. It takes a lot of work to write a blog and keep it active and interesting. Most women bloggers appear to care more about subjects other than politics, by at least 10:1. Contrast this with men, where ‘Life’ blogs outnumber ‘Politics’ blogs by only 1.5:1.

Unlike Ms. Goodman, I am perfectly willing to share my spreadsheet with the world. You can find it here. It contains not only the table above, but the names of the blogs in each category. I'd love to spend all day doing more research on this, providing link counts, etc., but the day job pays the bills and this doesn't. Let me just leave with this thought: If you visit Michelle's or Wonkette's blog entry in Blogshares and conclude that female bloggers don't get linked, you are either blind, insane, or so completely biased against men that you don't deserve to be heard in polite company.

Marines need e-mail

2007-06-20T22:57:00.000-04:00

Grim at Blackfive spoke with the commander of Regimental Combat Team SIX recently, and this for me is the highlight of the conversation -- what we can do to help the Marines:

GRIM: Is there anything that you and your Marines need that we could send you?

COL. SIMCOCK: (Chuckles.) I'll tell you what, the one thing that all Marines want to know about -- and that includes me and everyone within Regimental Combat Team 6 -- we want to know that the American public are behind us. We believe that the actions that we're taking over here are very, very important to America. We're fighting a group of people that, if they could, would take away the freedoms that America enjoys.

If anyone -- you know, just sit down, jot us -- throw us an e- mail, write us a letter, let us know that the American public are behind us. Because we watch the news just like everyone else. It's broadcast over here in our chow halls and the weight rooms, and we watch that stuff, and we're a little bit concerned sometimes that America really doesn't know what's going on over here, and we get sometimes concerns that the American public isn't behind us and doesn't see the importance of what's going on. So that's something I think that all Marines, soldiers and sailors would like to hear from back home, that in fact, yes, they think what we're doing over here is important and they are in fact behind us.

Here's the address: RCT-6lettersfromh@gcemnf-wiraq.usmc.mil
(Michelle Malkin wants copies of any emails you send, cc: writemalkin@gmail.com)

Here's my letter:

To the Marines and Sailors of Regimental Combat Team SIX,

I don't write letters often, but when I do it's usually because I feel strongly about the subject. In this case, it's your team, and what you mean to me and my family.

When I think of the Marines, the things that stand out most in my mind are pride and professionalism. In my younger days, I was a Navy junior officer, stationed on USS Manitowoc hauling Marines around the Mediterranean for two deployments*, on USS Iowa with a top-notch MARDET, and later on the staff of Beach Group TWO at Little Creek. I worked with Marines at every duty station for 10 years, and never met a Marine who was anything less than a professional. They deserved to be proud to claim the title.

You should be proud as well. Some people here in the States (e.g., the major media) have tried for the last four years to portray your mission as hopeless, or a waste. Some have fallen for the spin, and many more aren't even paying attention, but when I read stories about the war I see Marines being successful at every mission they take on. When I listen to the talking heads on TV, I hear negative comments, but looking around town it's extremely rare to see or hear vocal opposition.

You, like your brothers before you, are manning the front lines to make sure that our country's battles are fought over there and not back here. My family and I are thankful for your courage, for your resolve, and for your ability to get the job done right.

My heartfelt best wishes for the success of your mission, Semper Fi

Ken Adams
Delanco, New Jersey
http://smadanek.blogspot.com

* for the curious, it was MARG 1-86 (Guadalcanal, Ponce, El Paso, Hermitage and Manitowoc, 24th MAU/MEU) and MARG 4-87 (Nassau, Shreveport, and Manitowoc, 22nd MEU).

Please, send the Marines a little note to let them know that their mission is righteous, and that the American people are behind them 100%.

A Haiku

2007-04-16T13:36:00.000-04:00

While walking in to work from the car this morning, the following popped into my head:

Springtime nor'easter
snow-covered cherry blossoms
Al Gore gave a talk

Happy Birthday to Me!

2007-04-06T22:46:00.000-04:00

I got a really cool present for my birthday this year: a bunch of friends from way back, with whom I had lost touch, found this blog.
Lope, Cece, Kristi, and all y'all from back in the dark ages, it's great to hear from you.

Woodworking advice

2007-03-04T14:15:00.000-05:00

In the never-ending quest to maintain our 91-year-old house, I have come across the need to replace some kitchen cabinets. At a couple-hundred bucks each, it makes sense to build them rather than buy them. The only major tool needed for such an endeavor, not already in my shop, is a table saw.

I've looked at a couple of different models, but would like some advice on which model will work best for an amateur like myself. I can afford something in the $500-600 range. My shop area is set up only for 120V power, and is in a basement with fairly low overheads and a not-quite-level floor. Here are the candidates:

Grizzly's G0444.
Pro: I've heard good things about Grizzly tools over the years. Nice fence.
Con: Stamped steel wings. Shipping cost. I could drive 3 hours each way to get one from the showroom.

Jet's 708100 JWTS-10.
Pro: I've heard good things about Jet tools over the years.
Con: Stamped steel wings. Shipping cost ($149), but apparently has free shipping today.

Ridgid TS3650.
Pro: I can walk into Home Depot and walk out with this saw. Twenty-six 5-star reviews on the Home Depot web site. The wings appear to be cast rather than stamped. 12-months no payments/no interest if I use my Home Depot card.
Con: I don't see any, but could be wrong.

So can anyone out there help me?

New Jersey 2008 State Budget - Municipal Aid

2007-03-02T20:21:00.000-05:00

Enlighten New Jersey notes today the inequality in state aid to municipalities.

As required by law, each Legislative Distinct (LD) has approximately the same number of residents, and yet proposed municipal aid ranges from a low of $23,625,299 in LD-24 to a high of $119,422,814 in LD-29. The proposed average municipal aid per Legislative Distinct is $43,178,397.

Proposed state aid for each municipality and Legislative District can be viewed here and New Jersey population statistics as of December, 2006 can be found here.

Why are there differences? Enlighten doesn't come out and say it, but the two districts cited provide a clue. District 24 has a large number of small municipalities, 31 in all, receiving an average of $768,558.

District 29, on the other hand, covers Hillside Township and a portion of Newark. The average state aid in 29 is $59,721,407; Hillside will receive $5,676,440, while the tab for Newark is $113,766,374.

The observant will note that in addition to the difference in character (rural vs. urban), District 24 is represented in the Senate and Assembly by Republicans, while 29 is a Democrat District. Surprise!

Actually, it gets better. Breaking down the municipalities statewide by their representation, an interesting trend emerges. All-Democrat districts (Senator + 2 Assemblymen) receive an average of $5.3 million (per municipality) in total state aid, while all-Republican districts average $1.59 million. Here's the breakdown by representation:

Senate	Assembly	Average Aid	Average Increase
D	D, D	$5,304,771.40	1.95%
D	R, D	$2,582,107.63	1.91%
R	D, D	$2,106,762.21	1.91%
R	R, D	$3,081,757.84	1.91%
R	R, R¹	$1,589,208.16	1.88%

Breaking it down by county, it's clear that this year's state budget remains, as always, a vehicle for transferring cash to the New York area, at the expense of the rest of the state. Hudson County, with the largest starting aid level, also leads the way in growth at 1.97%

COUNTY	0607 Average Aid	0708 Average Aid	%Change
Hudson	$15,408,884	$15,711,918	1.97%
Essex	$9,831,517	$10,023,886	1.96%
Mercer	$8,766,272	$8,938,238	1.96%
Middlesex	$6,204,436	$6,324,626	1.94%
Passaic	$5,883,483	$5,996,404	1.92%
Union	$5,791,894	$5,904,388	1.94%
Camden	$3,359,636	$3,424,738	1.94%
Ocean	$2,129,170	$2,169,268	1.88%
Somerset	$2,074,086	$2,113,291	1.89%
Monmouth	$2,036,287	$2,075,099	1.91%
Bergen	$1,824,555	$1,858,832	1.88%
Cumberland	$1,781,920	$1,816,349	1.93%
Morris	$1,717,062	$1,749,088	1.87%
Atlantic	$1,679,125	$1,710,660	1.88%
Burlington	$1,630,726	$1,661,178	1.87%
Salem	$1,619,646	$1,651,477	1.97%
Gloucester	$1,512,750	$1,540,960	1.86%
Cape May	$1,390,098	$1,416,850	1.92%
Hunterdon	$815,436	$831,054	1.92%
Warren	$780,444	$795,219	1.89%
Sussex	$739,841	$753,266	1.81%
Grand Total	$2,993,880	$3,051,477	1.92%

Furthermore, larger municipalities continue to grow faster than smaller ones:

Municipality Type	0607 Average Aid	0708 Average Aid	%Change
City	$11,846,443	$12,079,345	1.97%
Town	$4,418,015	$4,503,779	1.94%
Township	$2,953,055	$3,009,313	1.91%
Village	$1,629,736	$1,660,126	1.86%
Borough	$1,043,348	$1,062,833	1.87%
Grand Total	$2,993,880	$3,051,477	1.92%

Combining the representation cut with municipality type, the disparity in state aid to municipalities becomes abundantly clear.

	All-Democrat	All-Republican
City	$ 22,981,789.73	$ 4,145,897.80
Town	$ 9,016,540.40	$ 1,996,690.78
Township	$ 3,909,956.64	$ 2,266,959.05
Village	$ 1,891,688.50	$ 1,428,564.00
Borough	$ 1,470,199.91	$ 817,775.29

The budget does not, as the governor said in his address, provide "an across-the-board two percent increase in municipal aid." It provides additional aid at less than the 2% he claims, and in the most divisive and partisan manner possible. If he had any shame, Governor Corzine would resign after submitting this garbage.

¹ Posted edited 3/2 9:20 AM to fix a typo

Global Warming

2007-02-25T11:15:00.000-05:00

Is global warming induced by human activity? What is the relationship between human energy output and atmospheric temperature increase?

Some would have you believe that we are all doomed if we don't cut our carbon emissions, because a 1 degree rise in temperature would raise sea level, wiping out coastal habitation. They claim that a majority of scientists agree that this is true.

Others discount these pronouncements, claiming that these theories are unproven and that the climate models on which they are based are both incomplete and not in agreement with observations.

So, armed with some basic facts, my trusty spreadsheet, and a knowledge of thermodynamics gained at great cost to the US taxpayer, I am going to explore the mathematics of this problem. This will probably take several posts.

First off, I want to know what the contribution of simple human existence is to the temperature of the planet. There are approximately 6.6 billion people on Earth right now, and we all generate heat just by living. The question is, how much heat, and what does that heat do to the atmosphere? Fortunately, the science of thermodynamics has figured out all kinds of cool ways to make these kinds of calculations.

The basic unit of energy is the Joule. The Wikipedia article I linked has a number of different conversion factors for Joules, but here are the most useful for this exploration:

1 joule in the real world is approximately:

the energy required to lift a small apple (102 g) one meter against Earth's gravity.
the amount of energy, as heat, that a quiet person produces every hundredth of a second.
the energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1 degree Celsius.
one hundreth of the energy a person can get by drinking a single 5 mm diameter droplet of beer.

So, a quiet person produces 100 Joules/second, which will heat 100 grams of dry cool air by 1 degree Celsius. Extending that to the entire population of the Earth, we produce enough heat energy every second to heat 660 billion grams (6.60x10⁸ kg) of dry air by 1 degree Celsius. That's a lot of heat!

So how much atmosphere are we heating? An estimate here puts the mass of the atmosphere at about 5,000 trillion metric tons, or 5.1480×10¹⁸ kg.

If we assume perfect conduction of human-produced heat energy into the atmosphere, then we can just divide the mass of the atmosphere by the mass-temperature rise each second to get the time it would take basic human existence to increase atmospheric temperature by 1 degree Celsius.

5.148 x 10¹⁸ kg / 6.6 x 10⁸ kg per sec = 0.78 x 10¹⁰ sec

7,800,000,000 seconds to heat the atmosphere by 1 degree Celsius equates to:

130,000,000 minutes
2,166,667 hours
90,278 days
247 years

So, if we assume (as above) that the atmosphere is a perfect receiver of heat, and that none of it goes into other things (like heating up the ocean), then in about 250 years the air will be 1 degree Celsius warmer (on average) due to the mere fact of human existence. This timeline doesn't support many of the claims, so the energy that is raising the temperature of the atmosphere must be coming from something other than basic human metabolism.

Next up: Raising the temperature of the ocean.

Yeah, I know I'm a slacker

2007-01-22T22:25:00.000-05:00

Bob over at eCache noticed that I pretty much abandoned my regular posting schedule last summer. Work had a large part in that, since I was working on a never-ending proposal effort from mid-June until last week.
Another factor was an online game that has consumed much of my mental bandwidth: BlogShares. (The observant reader will have noticed the graphic in my sidebar). It's a nicely addictive simulated economy, with multiple levels of play available. At the most basic level, a player starts out with an imaginary $500 with which to buy and sell shares of stock, representing blogs rather than companies. With a few tips, you can build that $500 to $100s of thousands in very short order.
The blogs are maintained in an index, which leads to another level of play. Players can vote blogs into industries, related to the subject or demographics of the blog. Smadanek, for example, is currently included in the index for Delanco (NJ), New Jersey Politics, Local Politics, Conservatism, Americas, USA Education Policy, English, Male, Politics, New Jersey, U.S.A. Politics, Navy, Free-Market Economics, Economics, Military, and Military Service. By voting correctly, players earn chips, which serve as a "social currency" within the game, and karma, which allows the player to eventually become a moderator of votes.
When new posts appear on a blog and Blogshares reindexes it (by visiting with a spider), the blog generates ideas. Ideas are treated as commodities, which can be bought, sold, traded, or used to create artefacts. Ideas also change in value each time an industry creates them, with the possibility of going up or down depending on how rare or common they are.
Once you get to this point in the game, it starts to get fun -- artefacts can be used to manipulate (temporarily) the price of a blog or an entire industry, to buy up all of the publicly available shares, or even to do a hostile takeover.
I've given myself something of a challenge with the game, attempting to push myself as far up the rankings as possible without buying a premium membership. It's tough, because non-premium members are limited to 21 transactions in any 24-hour period, while premiums are unlimited. But still, I'm pretty happy with the results - starting at $500 about 18 months ago, my net worth is now about B$ 1.5 trillion, good enough to crack the top 150 players. Still a long way to go, since the top player has gained almost 10 times that much this month alone.
So, if you like a fun game of building and competition, give BlogShares a try. I've only touched on the basics of the game; there are side competitions, games of chance, raffles, auctions and more awaiting you in this nice little world. Contact me in the game, and I'll get you on the path to a good time.

Happy New Year

2007-01-01T10:46:00.000-05:00

Resolutions: none.

Predictions:
I know the prediction business is a risky one, but I feel pretty confident in making these.

Solar fusion will warm the Earth, but not all of it and not all the time.
My kids will fight.
My back will go out, taking several days to straighten back up.
New Jersey taxes will go up.

Hope your New Year is safe, happy, and prosperous.

Mine too!

Deer Season, Part Deux

2006-12-05T19:17:00.000-05:00

A week ago, I got a big surprise when a young buck jumped into my headlights at a range of about 10 feet. My Blazer took some damage but was still drivable; the deer did not dare as well.
We got the call from the body shop, and it looks like a hefty $2,100 tab to replace the grill and a headlight, untwist the bumper, and replace the hood. What surprised me was that the insurance company decided to fix it, since the truck is 11 years old.
One piece of good news out of this incident - someone got some nice venison out of it. I spoke with our friendly neighborhood police officer, and he tells me that the carcass was gone pretty quickly.

Tags: Deer, Life, Road Kill

Go Navy!

2006-12-02T13:15:00.000-05:00

Alright all you Navy football fans, get your beers chilled and your TVs tuned to CBS (the only reason to watch that pathetic excuse for a network):

Navy (8-3) will play host to Army (3-8) in the 107th edition of the Army-Navy game Saturday at a sold-out Lincoln Financial Field (68,532) in Philadelphia. The Mids will be gunning for a fourth-straight Commander-In-Chief's Trophy and with a victory, the Navy senior class will become the first in school history to go 8-0 against Army and Air Force.

The game is also available on Sirius satellite radio, channel 130, and online at http://www.navysports.com/.

I'm ready for a heck of a game!

BEAT ARMY!

Tags: Army, Navy, Football

Deer Season

2006-11-28T22:39:00.000-05:00

As most folks in Jersey know, deer season opened yesterday in Pennsylvania. Living near the river, we always see a large increase in our neighborhood deer population during the week after Thanksgiving - the smart ones swim the Delaware River to avoid being shot. We've actually seen them climbing the banks down the block from our house.
This evening, I ran into one of the not-so-smart ones - quite literally - with my 11-year-old, 107,000+ mile Chevy Blazer. People talk about the figurative "deer in the headlights look," and I got to see the real thing.
So now I get to have body work done, and suck up a $500 insurance deductible right before Christmas. Isn't that wonderful?

Tags: Life, Deer

Have you ever?

2006-11-25T00:28:00.000-05:00

Lifted this from Jim:

1. Bought everyone in the bar a drink – How can you not when it's 25-cent draft night?
2. Swam with wild dolphins – Virginia Beach, many times. They come within a couple hundred yards of the shore.
3. Climbed a mountain – Mount Monadnock. CYO hiking trip - twice.
4. Taken a Ferrari for a test drive – No, but I owned 3 different Corvettes.
5. Been inside the Great Pyramid – Outside on horseback, but not inside.
6. Held a tarantula – oog. I hate spiders!
7. Taken a candlelit bath with someone – Does an electrically-lit hot tub count?
8. Said “I love you’ and meant it! – Yep.
9. Hugged a tree – Once, after way too much schnapps. I thought it was my friend, and kept calling it Ralph.
10. Bungee jumped – Gravity is not a toy.
11. Visited Paris – Only tourists go there. If you want to visit France, go to the villages outside Toulon, where they still remember the American soldiers who drove out the Nazis.
12. Watched a lightning storm at sea – Watched it, then drove the ship into it because we needed to get the salt washed off.
13. Stayed up all night long and saw the sun rise – More times than I can count.
14. Seen the Northern Lights – Nope.
15. Gone to a huge sports game – 1986 NBA Championship, Game 6, Boston Garden.
16. Walked the stairs to the top of the leaning Tower of Pisa – No.
17. Grown and eaten your own vegetables – My (wife's) garden this year included carrots, peas, broccoli, tomatoes (3 kinds), squash, green beans, strawberries, currants, raspberries, blackberries, plums, cherries, quince, lettuce, onions, basil, spinach, peppers, and grapes. There was probably some other stuff I didn't notice.
18. Touched an iceberg – Nope.
19. Slept under the stars – Camping is fun. Field training is not.
20. Changed a baby’s diaper – More times than I can count, but I avoided it more often than not. I have a very selective sense of smell.
21. Taken a trip in a hot air balloon – Gravity is not a toy.
22. Watched a meteor shower – Yep.
23. Drunk champagne – The bubbles tickle.
24. Given more than you can afford to charity – Never that much, but I have given more than was expected.
25. Looked up at the night sky through a telescope – Telescope, binoculars, periscope, and a sextant.
26. Had an uncontrollable giggling fit at the worst possible moment – Not that I can recall.
27. Had a good fight – Some pretty bad ones, too.
28. Bet on a winning horse – Bet against a winning horse, too.
29. Asked out a stranger – If a blind date counts, yes.
30. Had a snowball fight – Awesome ones.
31. Screamed as loudly as you possibly can – Regularly, down at the tracks while growing up. Trains are really loud.
32. Held a lamb – Yes.
33. Seen a total eclipse – No.
34. Ridden a roller coaster – Only under duress. Gravity is not a toy.
35. Scored a winning goal – I'm more of a team player in a supporting role.
36. Danced like a fool and not cared who was looking – I only dance when drunk. Usually by the time I get that drunk, I'm asleep.
37. Adopted an accent for an entire day – Several times.
38. Actually felt happy about your life, even for just a moment – Feeling that way now.
39. Visited all 5 continents – There are seven. I've been to North America (duh), Europe, Africa, and Asia. Lived in Asia for a year.
40. Taken care of someone who was drunk – Absolutely.
41. Danced with a stranger in a foreign country – See number 36.
42. Watched wild whales – Yes. Seen dead ones, too.
43. Stolen a sign – No, just lumber.
44. Backpacked – Yep.
45. Taken a road-trip – I've done the whole East Coast several times. Longest leg was Boca Raton FL to Virginia Beach (930 miles) in one shot. Solo.
46. Gone rock climbing – Gravity is not a toy.
47. Midnight walk on the beach – Does a patrol count?
45. Gone sky diving – Gravity is not a toy.
49. Taken a train through Europe – Took a ship around it once or twice.
50. Been heartbroken longer than you were actually in love – Nope.
51. In a restaurant, sat at a stranger’s table, and had a meal with them – We weren't strangers by the end of the meal.
52. Milked a cow – Doesn't milk come in carboard containers?
53. Alphabetized your CDs – By first and last name!
54. Sung karaoke – I wouldn't exactly call it singing.
55. Lounged around in bed all day – Sure.
56. Gone scuba diving – Loved it - Hawaii, an old quarry in PA, even the Persian Gulf.
57. Kissed in the rain – Sure.
58. Gone to a drive-in theatre – Amazing how many teenagers you can fit in a VW Squareback when the drive-in has a $5 per carload special.
59. Started a business – No.
60. Taken a martial arts class – Mandatory classes in college: boxing (2 semesters), wrestling, judo.
61. Been in a movie – Just a movie theater.
62. Crashed a party – Yes.
63. Gone without food for 5 days – 24 hours is my personal record, but I prefer no more than 6.
64. Gotten a tattoo – No.
65. Got flowers for no reason – No.
66. Performed on stage – I wouldn't exactly call it a performance.
67. Been to Las Vegas – No.
68. Recorded music – From vinyl to 8-track, yes.
69. Buried one/both of your parents – Neither, thankfully.
70. Been on a cruise ship – It was a cruise, but not a cruise ship. Too many Jarheads blocking the passageways and standing in lines.
71. Spoken more than one language fluently – I can order a beer in at least 5 languages.
72. Picked up and moved to another city to just start over – Yes.
73. Walked a famous bridge – the bridge of a famous battleship, many times. Each trip was a 4-hour walk.
74. Had plastic surgery – Nope.
75. Survived an accident that you shouldn’t have survived – Three car wrecks, any one of which could have been much more ugly. Worst I ended up with was a sprained wrist and a near-totaled convertible.
76. Written articles for a large publication – Submitted, but not published.
77. Tried to lose weight seriously – Lost 70 lbs in 2002-03. It took 60 weeks.
78. Been in the military – US Navy. But you knew that.
79. Read a good book – And some really bad ones, too.
80. Piloted an airplane – Fixed wing and helicopter. Not qualified to do either by myself, with good reason.
80. Petted a stingray – Yep.
81. Broken someone’s heart – Don't think so, but it's certainly possible.
82. Broken a bone – Busted my thumb trying to beat some sense into a college roomate. Didn't work.
83. Eaten sushi – If I was meant to eat raw fish, I'd have been born a grizzly bear.
84. Had your picture in the newspaper – Sure.
85. Parasailed – Gravity is not a toy.
86. Skipped all your school reunions – No.
87. Shaved your head – Nearly. Lost my hair in a football game bet when I was a plebe.
88. Caused a car accident – See number 75. 16-year-old boys and 1968 Firebird Convertibles are a dangerous mix.
89. Pretended to be “sick” – Not that I can recall. Wished I was sick many times.
90. Swam in the Pacific Ocean – Yep, in Hawaii and California.
91. Saved someone’s life – Not directly.
92. Fainted – Not really fainting, per se. More like "sleeping it off."
93. Been in the room while someone is giving birth – Five times, once with a C-section. Cut the cord, too!
94. Hitchhiked – No.
95. Adopted a child – No.
96. Been caught daydreaming – I've been caught sleeping in class, but not daydreaming. No imagination I guess.
97. Been to the Painted Desert – No.
98. Called off a wedding engagement – Not in this life.
99. Become a follower of Jesus Christ – Sure, when my parents had me baptized.

Valour-IT End Game

2006-11-11T19:51:00.000-05:00

It's coming right down to the wire in the Valour-IT Veterans' Day Challenge, with just over 4 hours to go, we are ~~less than $4,600~~ just over $1,400 from our goal! The graph below shows that we were at $175,610 as of 1911 EST; as I prepared it Army crossed the line and the Marines brought in another big donation, pushing the total to $178,568

The only team not over $45,000 is Air Force. They're $8,300 short of the goal; must have spent their time building O-Clubs instead of airfields. Pretend you are Congress and give them more money to make them operational.

Updated 2000: Here's a snapshot of Army crossing the finish line. Nicely done.

Update, 2119: Ladies and gentleman, we have done it! As of this moment, the total stands at $180,095; Army took the hill with a $500 donation to get us there, supported by the Marines with another $50 for good luck. There's still time to help Air Force make it to the summit, but the primary main objective has been achieved! Congratulations, everyone!

Tags: Valour-IT

$24,966 ...

2006-11-10T23:12:00.000-05:00

... and 12 hours are all that stand between now and the Valour-IT goal. The chart shows that we are oh-so-close to hitting $180,000 by 1100, 11/11.

All four teams have done their part today, with Navy still leading the pack, the Marines going vertical, and the Army and Air Force moving along briskly as well.

Our Jarhead brothers and sisters only need another $1,761 to hit the $45,000 mark. Watch the space below, and shift fire to get Army over the line once the Marines make the grade. If we keep up the joint effort, all four teams together will have done something wonderful for the injured men and women who have sacrificed so much for us.

Tags: Valour-IT

GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL!!!!!!!

2006-11-10T11:34:00.000-05:00

At this instant in time, the Navy Valour-IT team is at the goal line, and has collected $45,000 to support our injured troops. Now that we have reached the first objective, it's time to push on. The next objective is $180,000 for the drive, and we must keep the pressure on to help the other services deliver.

Army, Air Force, and the Marines need our help, and this has always been a joint operation. Let's give the Marines a birthday present first, then move on to the Air Force.

Tags: Valour-IT, Navy

November 10, 1775

2006-11-10T07:48:00.000-05:00

Here's health to you and to our Corps
Which we are proud to serve;
In many a strife we've fought for life
And never lost our nerve.
If the Army and the Navy
Ever gaze on Heaven's scenes,
They will find the streets are guarded
By United States Marines.

Happy Birthday, Leathernecks!

Tags: USMC

Two More Days to Support Valour-IT

2006-11-09T20:39:00.000-05:00

There are an awful lot of bloggers supporting Valour-IT. Many of them have great stories to tell. I just realized how many of the Navy team members I haven't visited recently (see the team blogroll in the sidebar). Check out what a few of them have to say:

Boudicca looks to the past and finds a parallel with the present
An "old as dirt" mustang discusses real courage
Barry at enrevanche is matching donations to Valour-IT - or at least he was until you generous donors maxed him out at $500.
Jim from FEWL.NET worries about losing the chaplain from his cruiser
Flag Gazer reports an unusual donation
Jason is going to OCS to be a pork chop
Frank J. says, "A chicken in every pot, a bullet in every terrorist."

These are the people who make Valour-IT work. Show them your support by dropping in once in a while.

Progress Update:

In just two short days, this year's Valour-IT Veteran's Day drive will come to a close. We remain short of our $180,000 goal, but with your help we can still get there; at the current total ($127,713) through PayPal, plus the auctions and any checks that have been mailed in it could be close.

The Navy team is almost over the $45,000 mark -- only $2,700 to go! Press on, Navy!

Tags: Valour-IT, Navy, Beat Army

Wednesday Upate

2006-11-08T23:15:00.000-05:00

Thanks (again) to the folks at Power Line, Navy remains in the lead at almost $40,000, with the Army, Marines and Air Force each maintaining the same relative positions they held yesterday. With $5,244 left until meeting our goal, we can't let up yet - those Army guys will pull a rabbit out of their hat like last year and end up winning again, and we can't have that.

Of course, the competition is really just a means to stimulate donations, and while they are short of the goal we still have quite an impressive number on our hands. As of 2300 this evening, $119,772 has been paid via PayPal, and the auctions so far account for another $1,000 or more. That's more than 20% better than last year's drive, and we still have Thursday, Friday and Saturday for a final push.

Thus endeth the counting. Go forth and find more!

BEAT ARMY!

Tags: Valour-IT, Navy

Why I Support Valour-IT

2006-11-08T22:02:00.000-05:00

My best friend from high school always wanted to be a soldier. Soon after we graduated, he was off to boot camp, and ended up in the field artillery at Fort Richardson while I studied at the boat school. He always had great stories when we were able to get together on leave; his passion for an Army career was amazing, even at the tender age of 19, and he wanted nothing more than the opportunity to defend our great nation against all enemies.
After a successful tour in Alaska, he transferred to Yakima, Washington, and that's where the story gets interesting. About a month after I got my commission, I got a call about my friend, who had been in a motorcycle accident. His helmet had saved his life, but just barely. Recovery was touch-and-go for a long time, but he finally pulled through.
In the twenty-one years since that accident, my Cold Warrior friend has been legally blind, as a result of brain damage from his accident. He also has great difficulty with fine motor control, and can only write well enough to fit a few dozen words legibly on a legal pad. He only recently got connected with e-mail, and needs help to be able to read and respond.
When I see what Valour-IT is able to do for wounded warriors today, I wonder how my friend's life would have changed if the technology had existed back then. The ability to reach out for support from someone in a similar situation, to stay in touch with family and friends, even to record his thoughts and fears could have made a huge difference.

Make a difference for one of today's warriors. Every dollar donated goes to the wounded. Click the link in the sidebar so that they have an opportunity my friend didn't have.

Tags: Valour-IT

Floored

2006-11-07T20:29:00.000-05:00

Absolutely floored. Flat on my back, almost passed out. That's how I feel right now after seeing the response generated by the kind readers of Power Line. Scott Johnson put up his first post about Valour-IT 23.5 hours ago, and a second post 12 hours later. In the day before Scott's post, the Navy team collected $985. In the 24 hours since Scott brough Valour-IT to the attention of his readers, we have collected $17,145, and vaulted into the lead of our little interservice competition.

Even better news than Navy's big move, we've managed to pull the totals that much closer to the goal line. The project as a whole has gone from more than $26,000 behind to only a $16,000 deficit, and we are now well past last year's total collected with four days left in the drive. We have more than $111,000 committed, which is enough to buy 166 laptops to support our injured troops.

All of the credit for this goes to the readers of Power Line. We would not be where we are without them. From the bottom of my heart and on behalf of those not yet able to send a message themselves, thank you for all you've done.

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Navy

Update, 11:14 PM EST: Paul from Maryland just dropped a $3,000 donation on the Navy team. I am absolutely in awe of the generosity of people like Paul. They are great Americans and heroes in the truest sense.

Valour-IT Monday Checklist

2006-11-06T22:53:00.000-05:00

Monday's Checklist:

1) Recruit new team members. Done. Welcome aboard, Power Line. Thank you for taking time to join us on what has to be the busiest day of your year.
2) Check out the auctions at NZ Bear's place. Done. Lots of cool stuff, like rare challenge coins, SUBGRU wine glasses, ship posters, books, and even a couple of sweaty old flight suits (worn in combat, no less!). Navy is leading the charge on this one, while the other teams fail to capitalize on the opportunity.
3) Suck up to local blog friends for more contributions and linkage. Done, done, and done. Thank you, New Jersey!
4) Post the latest stats. This job has gotten easier now that I've figured out a way to automate the data capture. Team Navy is still lagging far behind the others, but now that Power Line and the New Jersey crew are on board we should start to close the gap. Army has retaken the lead at $24,758, with the Marines $450 behind. Air Force has a comfortable 3rd place position, while we watch everyone else's six.

For the totals, we have effectively broken $90,000 with $89,901 in the till and another $800-plus promised through the auctions. There will also be checks and non-team contributions to bump up the numbers, but it's still a long way to go for $180,000.

Keep charging everyone!

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Navy

Valour-IT Sunday Update

2006-11-05T22:12:00.000-05:00

Welcome, Power Line readers! For the latest stats, please head up to the top of the site.

Navy Team, there is good and bad news in the Valour-IT statistics at the end of the weekend. The good news is that Team Navy has so far collected $17,281, enough to purchase about 26 laptops for the injured who need them so much.
The bad news, as you can see on the chart below, is that we are getting our collective butts kicked by the other three teams. As of 2200 this evening, the Marines stand in the lead with more than $24,000; Army is second just over $22,000; and Air Force is third at around $21,000.

It really is time to get moving now, Navy! We need to average $5,000 per day to reach our goal by Veterans' Day. Our shortfall versus goal is $7,700, which would provide another 11 laptops to the program. We are responsible for 51% of the total miss of $15,109, and need to make sure that we don't continue to slow the effort down.

Keep your spirits up, and contact everyone you know, whether or not you think they will help. We need a massive surge over the next few days to get over the line.

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Navy

VALOUR-IT Saturday Update

2006-11-04T10:38:00.000-05:00

Folks, we definitely need to kick it up a notch on the Navy team. To reach our $45,000 goal, we need to pull in $3,612 per day. Our running average as of this post is only $2,668! You can see in the chart below that we are fallling way off the pace, with more than $5,000 to make up and only a week left to do it. It's time to secure the brow, take in all lines, and get this ship underway!

Even worse, the project as a whole is slipping behind, with all of our competitors missing the mark. None of them are as far behind as Team Navy, but is still adds up to a $15,000 deficit.

Dig deep, folks. It's going to be hard to make our goal, but it can be done.

Update 12:47 PM: Here's the breakdown by team against the goal. Everyone (except Army) seems to be moving in the right direction right now; let's hope we can keep it up!

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Navy

VALOUR-IT Progress Report

2006-11-02T18:50:00.000-05:00

The VALOUR-IT Veterans' Day challenge is off to a great start, with over $55,000 collected in just over three days! Only $125k left to go, and we can get there with your help. Here's the total progress so far:

In the competition between services, it looks like the (ugh!) Army is on top, but the Marines are close behind and coming up fast. The Air Force, in third place, is only about $500 ahead of Navy. Note in the chart below that Navy's average contribution is about $5 more than Air Force, so we should be able to catch up pretty soon.

Navy has gained a lot of ground today, closing the gap on Army from $3,700 yesterday evening to only $1800 as of this posting. This is great news, but there's still a long way to go -- our team is still more than $600 short of pace needed to hit the target.

Folks, this really is a wonderful cause, and the early returns via the blogosphere are very encouraging. With your help, the Navy team can reach our goal of $45,000 by Veterans' Day. Please, click the button in the sidebar, make a small (or large) donation, and help make a wounded soldier's life easier.

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Navy

Voice Activated Laptops for OUR Injured Troops

2006-10-30T10:20:00.000-05:00

The VALOUR-IT project, in which I participated last year, is starting up its annual drive in preparation for Veteran's Day. The project, which has so far provided 650 laptops to troops injured in combat, is well worth your time, energy, and money. Please consider making an online donation at the link in my sidebar.

Like last year, blogger teams representing the Army (Blackfive), Air Force (Op-For), Marine Corps (Villainous Company), and Navy (Chaotic Synaptic Activity) will be competing to see who can raise the most. Navy was first over the line to the goal of $20,000, and ended in a close finish just behind the Army bloggers. This year, the bar has been raised, with a goal of $45,000 per team. Please give your support to our troops, and do it through the Navy team!

Tags: VALOUR-IT, Soldiers Angels, Navy

The NJ Gay "Marriage" Ruling

2006-10-26T12:28:00.000-04:00

Glenn Reynolds is running a poll, asking whether or not the NJ Supreme Court's "decision" will help the Republicans nationally. I don't think it will, simply because the decision was really a punt. Typical of the Imperial New Jersey Supreme Court, it directs the legislature to take an action, rather than actually deciding anything on the merits of the law and our state Constitution.
Enlighten NJ called it early:

A ruling in favor of gay marriage would be topic one in the state, drowning out all other issues for the balance of the campaign. Major reverberations would be felt around the country and the last thing Democrats, and particularly Bob Menendez, need are hot debates about activist courts and gay marriage.
The timing of the court’s decision can be controlled and a decision to legalize gay marriage in New Jersey certainly could have waited until after the election. A ruling against gay marriage can’t hurt Democrats and may well help their electoral chances.
Court imposed gay marriage in New Jersey is not going to happen. We might be wrong - but if gay marriage becomes legal in New Jersey tomorrow, the ruling will become know as The October Surprise of 2006.

Chief Justice Deborah Poritz may be a socialist political hack, but she is certainly not stupid. A decision to legalize gay marriage outside of the constitution and the law could have become a powerful Republican turnout driver; this decision doesn't have that power.

New tool for War on Terror

2006-09-23T23:15:00.000-04:00

Today I had the distinct honor of attending the launch of the future USS Freedom, LCS 1. The christening was a "smashing" success. After five years of work to define what a littoral combatant should be able to do, and helping to influence the design of the ship, it was a real pleasure to see her with my own eyes this morning, and to witness the first Great Lakes launch of a naval combatant since World War II.
From the Lockheed Martin press release:

MARINETTE, WI, September 23, 2006 – History was made here today when the nation’s first Littoral Combat Ship, FREEDOM (LCS-1) – the inaugural ship in an entirely new class of U.S. Navy surface warships – was christened and launched at the Marinette Marine shipyard.
The agile 377-foot FREEDOM -- designed and built by a team led by Lockheed Martin [NYSE:LMT] -- will help the Navy defeat growing littoral, or close-to-shore, threats and provide access and dominance in coastal water battlespace. Displacing 3,000 metric tons and with a capability of reaching speeds well over 40 knots, FREEDOM will be a fast, maneuverable and networked surface combatant with operational flexibility to execute focused missions, such as mine warfare, anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare and humanitarian relief.
FREEDOM’s christening ceremony included the traditional smashing of a champagne bottle across the ship’s bow, performed by ship’s sponsor Birgit Smith. Smith, the wife of U.S. Army Sgt. 1st Class Paul Ray Smith, who was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor for bravery and gallantry above and beyond the call of duty in Operation Iraqi Freedom, was selected as FREEDOM’s sponsor by Secretary of the Navy Gordon R. England.
FREEDOM made a spectacular side-launch before an audience of thousands who had lined both sides of the Menominee River, which divides the states of Wisconsin and Michigan.
“Just a little more than three years ago she was just an idea, now FREEDOM stands before us. And on this morning, we christen her, send her down the ways and get her ready to join the Fleet next year,” said Admiral Michael G. Mullen, U.S. Navy, Chief of Naval Officer. “It comes none too soon … because there are tough challenges out there that ONLY she can handle.”

There are those who would criticize the LCS program as ill-defined, and potentially too expensive, but can we really afford to wait until everything is perfectly decided in the face of today's enemy? The Arleigh Burke class, the last combatant program to launch, started in the late 1970s and didn't commission a ship until 1991. During that period, the perceived threat for the Burkes didn't really change -- they were built to defend the fleet against mass air attack, strike at enemy land targets, and defeat the nuclear submarine threat. That threat is gone, replaced by the massed small boat attack, the mine, and the quiet diesel submarine. The Burke class is serving admirably against those threats, because it has to. Doesn't it make sense to build small, fast, shallow draft ships as a complement to the Burke class, allowing them to concentrate on keeping the blue-water sea lines of communication open?
I believe that we need to return to the developmental nature of shipbuilding experienced in the 1920s and 30s. Look at the number of different ship classes created during that timeframe, and the radically improved capability achieved in the late 30s designs compared to those of the early 20s. By building a few ships, experimenting with them, and feeding the results back into the design process we developed the seeds of World War II's great fleet. LCS follows in that tradition -- the Navy is building four ships to meet a single set of requirements, with two radically different designs. Experiments undertaken with those ships will inform future designs. Eventually, the Navy will have 55 ships, each able to take on modular mission packages to adapt to new missions, new threats, and new environments.
These ships have generated significant overseas interest, as well. Israel is one of the most interested countries, and is pursuing a study right now to take advantage of the LCS 1 hull form and mechanical arrangements with their own combat system needs built into the ship. Rather than buy a foreign design, I believe we should press on, and use the foreign interest to lower our costs by spreading the overhead across more hulls.
Here are a few articles for your consideration on the subject:
DefenseNews.com - US Navy Studies Adapting LCS For Israel - 04/10 ...
Israel, Saudi Arabia Eye US Navy Ship
Give the Navy time. I think they really do know what they are doing. There will be some rough patches along the way, but the taxpayers will end up with a very effective ship, and will not have to pay through the nose to get it.

Tags: US Navy, War on Terror, Littoral Combat Ship, USS Freedom

No Higher Honor

2006-09-10T08:25:00.000-04:00

I've always had a fascination with ships, and especially the heroic efforts of men to save them in combat. I think this fascination comes from my grandfather, who was a submariner starting in the early 1930's and left his wife and young son safely behind in Pearl Harbor during a late 1941 Western Pacific patrol. My Dad doesn't remember much of the Japanese attack, and my grandmother rarely spoke of it, but I sucked up everything I could read on that battle and many others in the Pacific.
The men who brought our nation back from Pearl Harbor to defeat the Japanese live on today, although their stories aren't told the way they used to be.
During my time in the Navy, four ships suffered significant damage at the hands of an enemy - USS Stark, USS Samuel B. Roberts, USS Tripoli, and USS Princeton. In each case, sailors trained for the mission executed beautifully and saved their ships to fight another day.
A newly published book, No Higher Honor, by Brad Peniston, chronicles the tale of USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG 58). I haven't read the book yet, but it looks to be a winner. Here's a taste from Chapter 1:

On the forecastle, Gibson raised his binoculars again. This time, there was something out there. A half-mile off the starboard bow, three objects bobbed some distance apart. They were black, like the ubiquitous floating trash bags. But these had protrusions and rounded carapaces...maybe they were dead sheep? Gibson had seen plenty of those bloated forms, the castoff dead of Australian livestock carriers.

These objects were different, shinier.

That's a mine! he thought.

This kind of narrative just feels right. Amazon reviews give it five stars. Go buy the book.

Tags: Navy, Samuel B. Roberts, FFG

Testing Writely

2006-08-20T13:43:00.000-04:00

I've started playing around with Writely, Google's latest beta product. Writely is a web-based word processing tool, which can save your files in Word, OpenOffice, rich text, PDF, or HTML. It also has the capability to post to different blog platforms, and allows for collaboration between different authors.
It seems like a pretty cool toy, but I don't think it's quite ready for prime time yet. Knowing Google, it'll get there pretty quickly.

28 days without a post

2006-08-13T21:44:00.000-04:00

I am such a blogging delinquent! I should be on here day after day, posting about the horrors of excess taxation, covering my local school board meetings, or just saying something to keep the blog alive!

But I haven't.

Until now.

You see, at church this morning I was given something to blog about. Something that was a little different from normal.

One of the families in our parish who normally sit about 10 rows in front of us came in as they usually do, but with an interesting twist. This family, with four strapping young men, had among its members a brand-new Marine PFC! How did I know, you might ask? He was in his uniform, and you could tell from the looks of the parishoners that every one of them was proud to have this young Marine worship in our church today. None looked more proud than his parents, and rightly so.

After mass, a number of folks took the time to shake the young Marine's hand. I count myself fortunate to have been among them, and to have had the opportunity to thank him for his service. I hope that the love and respect shown in our church today helps to sustain him over the next few years, as he does the things that Marines do every day.

Exercise in Futility

2006-07-16T23:02:00.000-04:00

This evening, after my second consecutive weekend road trip to Connecticut, I filled out my "FAIR" rebate application. I was hoping to get a little of the tax relief Governor Corzine promised during his campaign. Sure would be nice to get a few hundred dollars back from the property tax relief fund.

The state provides a nice, online form with which to submit an application. It walks through all of the values required, and generates a receipt at the end. It even reminds the user to either save or print the receipt, as it is the only record that an application has been submitted.

Unfortunately, I probably won't get the rebate. You see, I worked really hard last year to generate enough cash flow to pay my bills, feed my kids, and fund my copious tax liabilities. In fact, I worked about 17% overtime, and that put me into the realm of the ineligible "rich" by a couple hundred bucks. Had I only worked 16% - 20 hours less - then I would be eligible to receive the rebate.

Really "FAIR" system, isn't it? Thanks, Governor!

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes

OAR Northwest Update

2006-07-04T14:03:00.000-04:00

It looks like the boys from OAR Northwest, in their quest to row across the Atlantic Ocean, have been getting a bit too much sun. In their latest Team Blog posts, they have given themselves superhero names. Not That There's Anything Wrong With That, of course.
Oh well, at least they are still kicking limey butt, as is appropriate on this beautiful Independence Day. Keep on strokin', guys!
Send them some 4th-of-July love, via Iridium.com, number 881641426086.

Tags: Shepherd Ocean Fours, Rowing

Ocean Fours Race Update

2006-07-02T15:24:00.000-04:00

As of 4:14 PM (Greenwich Mean Time), the American team in James Robert Hanssen has made the transition out of the Gulf Stream. They've got 1,820 nautical miles left to go, and have opened up a 70 nautical mile lead on the next closest team, Yorkshire Warrior.

If you stop by the race tracking page, you'll see that the organizers have a bit different number. They are apparently just subtracing distance travelled from the straight-line distance between New York and Falmouth. Unfortunately, that doesn't work so well when you are following the surface of a spherical planet. By their measure, the team from OAR Northwest would have a lead of nearly 250 miles.

Tags: Shepherd Ocean Fours, Rowing

And now for something completely different

2006-06-30T12:03:00.000-04:00

Recently, I've been following the progress of the Shepherd Ocean Fours rowing race. This is really a phenomenal race -- four teams of rowers (four men each) set out from New York on June 10th, bound for Falmouth, England. Twenty days into the race, three of the teams have covered over 1,000 miles. The fourth had a mechanical failure and is safely back in port.

The enormity of this task is really daunting -- take a look at this map to get a feel for what they've accomplished and what they have left to do (the rings are 500 nautical miles each!):

I've been following the American team, OAR Northwest, pretty closely through a friend at work. As of this morning, the Americans in the James Robert Hanssen have about a 30 nautical mile lead, and are making good use of the Atlantic Ocean currents to stay ahead. They're the green line on my chart.

They, like the two British teams (Team Hesco and Yorkshire Warrior), are rowing for charity as well as for the challenge. You can show your support for the team by making a donation, half of which will go to the American Lung Association of Washington to further asthma research and promote general lung health. Why that particular charity?

Team captain, Jordan Hanssen, watched his father collapse and die from an asthma attack when he was just three years old. He later developed, but fortunately outgrew, the disease. His life of athletics, both swimming and rowing, is both an act of defiance towards this affliction and a hope to spread knowledge of how it can be controlled. It is in honor of his father's memory that we have partnered with the American Lung Association of Washington and named our boat the

James Robert Hanssen

Individual donations are an integral part of the success of OAR Northwest. Your donations will help our team raise the significant anount of money we need to purchase and outfit the boat, and get it and ourselves to England and back!

You can also show your support by sending them a (free!) text message via Iridium.com, number 881641426086. The messages are limited to 160 characters, but the guys say they row faster with each one they receive.

Tags: Shepherd Ocean Fours, Rowing

State Employee Growth

2006-06-21T19:19:00.000-04:00

Paul Nelson of NJ Fiscal Folly pointed out a great resource yesterday in NJ Government Employee Data. I spent a couple of hours last night going through the reports, and one thing I can tell you is that our structural problem in New Jersey has been brewing for an awfully long time.

New Jersey, like most other Northeastern states, has been growing at a decelerating rate through much of the 20th century. The linear growth trend suggests we may reach zero population growth in about sixteen years.
[editorial note: the vertical scale on the following chart should read "Growth Rate" rather than "Cumulative Growth"]

Even though the population growth is decelerating, the numbers add up significantly over a long period of time. I chose 1920 as a base year because it was the earliest readily accessible data point at the US Census website. From 1920 to 2005, New Jersey's population grew by 176%.

As noted by Enlighten-New Jersey, growth in state employment has, on average, been much higher than population growth, but with significantly more variability.

The only bright spot on this chart is the slight dip during the 80s (19%) and 90s (-5%), when state employee growth was held to more reasonable levels. Overall employment change for that period (13.3%) was actually less than population growth (14.2%). Governor McGreevey undid those gains and then some; by 2005 we had 26% more employees than in 1980, but only 18% more people in the state.

As Enlighten says, "government is becoming less productive and more costly with each passing year." How much more? Take a look at one final chart, showing the cumulative growth of the state's population versus the cumulative growth in state employees.

These numbers are truly staggering. The state employs nearly 1% of our population, and wants to add more. Governor Corzine's 2007 budget adds another 1,300 employees to the payroll. Contrast that with the US military. It had less than 0.5% of the population on active duty in 2005 (page 166), and will decrease by nearly 4% by 2007.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Corzine, State Budget

Union - Management Relations

2006-06-19T20:05:00.000-04:00

FAIRFIELD, CT -- The Industrial Division of the Communications Workers of America (IUE-CWA) held a rally this afternoon in front of General Electric headquarters in Fairfield, Connecticut. At issue: leaked internal management memos that indicate company plans to downsize the unionized workforce by 15%.
Union leaders are outraged. Union president Jim Clark, addressing the 6,000-strong crowd, demanded that GE Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt publicly denounce the memos and support full execution of the company's contract with the union.
To the surprise of everyone present, Immelt did just that. Appearing at the rally, he said he stood with the unions. "I'll stand with you. I'll fight with you,'' he said.

Real? No. Not in GE-land, where management caving in to union demands leads to an unsustainable business model. Just ask Delphi, whom the IUE sucked dry back in the day before CWA took them over.

... the forces that pushed Delphi into bankruptcy court have been building for years. As the auto industry has gone global, U.S. automakers — saddled with high-cost labor contracts negotiated in more prosperous times — now find themselves pitted against leaner overseas rivals.

In the real world, a board of directors faced with Immelt's fictional action would fire him so fast his head would spin. They have a fiduciary duty to their stockholders to keep the company as profitable as possible, and a rogue chief executive siding with the unions is not in the best interest of the owners of the company.
Here in New Jersey, however, we have failed to learn the lessons of history. Enlighten-New Jersey notes how Corzine Vows To "Fight For Public Employees."

Pubic workers enthusiastically support Corzine’s budget because it contains no layoffs or cuts to state worker salary increases and fringe benefits. With growing concerns over the disparity between public and private sector pay packages, some lawmakers have suggested Corzine take action this year to rein in the cost public employees.

Many New Jersey bloggers noted during the campaign that Jon Corzine was not fit to lead our state. He fails to represent the interests of the taxpayers who elected him, just as he did in the Senate for five years.
After only a few months in office, it should be abundantly clear to all that we cannot tolerate his incompetence. Our "board of directors," the Senate and Assembly, have a fiduciary duty to the taxpayers to ensure our state is operated efficiently. A chief of executive siding with the unions against the legislature does not serve that interest. Corzine must go.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Corzine, State Budget

Experiment

2006-06-13T22:37:00.000-04:00

Well, this should be interesting. A friend invited me to sign up for Blogads, so I did. I've priced my advertising space ridiculously low, so if you want to get in on the ground floor, and cheap, click on the link in the sidebar RIGHT NOW.

Go on, CLICK IT!

Please?

Tags: Blogads

Taxing Us to Death, Revisited

2006-06-12T23:10:00.000-04:00

Enlighten New Jersey notes today that New Jersey Democrats are Not Satisfied With $16,667 Per Person In Taxes.

Taxpayers want Trenton to cut state spending, not come up with new ways to extract money out of their wallets. Shifting taxes around and identifying new things to tax does not solve the problem.

The people of New Jersey already pay more than their fair of taxes, no matter what Governor Jon Corzine, Senator Bob Menendez and all the other state Democrats might have you believe. These numbers don’t lie. New Jersey’s per capita tax of $16,667 is the second highest in the nation. And that's before Corzine’s new hospital, sales and other proposed taxes.

The specific numbers to which Enlighten refers were provided by the Tax Foundation. In addition to the raw dollars, where New Jersey ranks second behind Connecticut, they also have a table showing the state, local, and federal tax burdens as a percentage of income, along with a projected "Tax Freedom Day" for each year starting in 1970. Back then, NJ's workers had "paid off" their taxes by April 18th; it now sits at May 6th. We rank 3rd in total tax burden across the country, and have only been out of the top five twice since 1982.

An interesting comparison from that table is the difference between New Jersey's state/local tax burden and the average across the country. Back in the days of Brendan Byrne and Tom Kean, New Jersey was consistently close to the national average, as shown in the graph below.

Over the long haul of the data available, New Jersey has on average been less than 1/10th of 1% higher than the national average; under Governor Florio, however, we were significantly more taxed than the rest of the country, to the tune of nearly 3/4%. The "Whitman tax cuts" our liberal friends like to rail about were really just a return to the mainstream of America from Florio's confiscatory scheme.

Governor Corzine, by proposing to increase our sales tax 16.7%, seeks to return to the Florio model of taxing us to death. The real solution is to cut total spending, not increase it by $2 billion and demand more tax money to cover a manufactured "deficit."

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes

Alive!

2006-06-09T21:20:00.000-04:00

Roberto at DynamoBuzz posts to let us know he's still alive, but busy.

Me too. I got snagged at work to help out on a project that was falling behind, so my overtime is up significantly over the past few weeks. Most of the summer is going to be like this, since we have a major proposal to write by September. Last time I worked on a big proposal, I averaged about 75 hours a week for the final month.

I'll still be lurking, but probably won't be posting too often between now and the heavy part of the campaign season.

Note: I had posted this using Firefox's "Blog This" extenstion, but somehow it was pointed at my template testing blog. I caught the error and moved this post three days later.

Tags: Stupid Blogger Tricks

Remeber them

2006-05-28T13:15:00.000-04:00

On this lovely Memorial Day weekend, please take time to thank a veteran. More importantly, remember to honor those who can no longer receive our thanks in person. They are immortalized in the third verse of the song, America:

O beautiful for heroes proved In liberating strife.
Who more than self the country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!

Tags: Memorial Day

Absence

2006-05-17T22:18:00.000-04:00

Just realized it's been over a week since I posted anything. I'm still here, just busy with Real Life™ stuff. Working on a couple of things, hopefully will get them up this week.

Who Knew? School Administrators Come Out Against Cuts

2006-05-09T21:28:00.000-04:00

Corzine Watch reports that, surprisingly, school administrators don't want their budgets cut. In fact, the administrators of our institutions of higher education feel so strongly about it, they've almost taken to threatening the legislature in testimony:

The administrators also argued that the financial hardships would be far worse than the $169 million in cuts, because the state has asked schools to take on an additional $121.8 million in new costs. The heavy financial burden the state is putting on the schools could have a long-term effect. Less students would be able to afford state schooling, which could force students out of state.

The state of New Jersey spends boatloads of money on its colleges. Take Rutgers, for example. In 2006, net subsidies through the Department of State budget totaled almost $331 million; 2007 net subsidies will be just short of $275 million (click to enlarge):

What's staggering to me is the gross amount of state support to Rutgers through Grants-in-Aid -- nearly $1.6 billion. The cut in state aid, shown in this budget line, is less than $31 million, or 1.9% of the total grant. This will hardly bankrupt an institution that has been in existence since 1766.

You'll notice from the table that one other line is significantly different between 2006 and 2007: Receipts from Tuition Increase. In 2005 and 2006, Rutgers had extra income of $26 and $28 million, respectively, from higher tuition rates.

The table below, again taken from the Department of State budget, shows the cost of attendance at Rutgers increased by 3.6% in 2005, and by 5.5% in 2006. In each of those years, tuition for both in-state and out-of-state undergrads increased by 8% (click to enlarge).

This year's budget only anticipates $860,000 from higher tuitions, and this is a proper position for the governor to take. Like the state, Rutgers (and the other institutions of higher education) must learn to manage expenditures within expected revenues. The model of the past, in which revenues are managed to cover desired expenses, has got to go. Students, as the administrators have correctly recognized, can no longer afford annual 8% increases in tuition. Neither can the state.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget, Education

Blogs on a Plane

2006-05-07T15:54:00.000-04:00

The Fifth Column presents Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers #51: Blogs on a Plane, and does a damn fine job of it. A very nice flying experience...

Post-Carnival Slump

2006-05-06T10:11:00.000-04:00

Why is it, after hosting a Carnival I fall into a period with no motivation to write? I know there are lots of happenings in the world of New Jersey taxes and budgeting, and that they deserve comment. For some reason, I just can't summon the mental energy to do it properly this week.

Is it really the Carnival?

Tags: Carnival

Budget Nitpick

2006-05-02T21:03:00.000-04:00

One thing that really bothers me about this budget -- I find that I can't trust any of the numbers found therein. Let me share one example:

The compensation of members of the Legislature is $49,000 per year (C52:10A--1). The President of the Senate and the Speaker of the General Assembly, by virtue of their offices, receive an additional allowance equal to one--third of their compensation.

This should be a pretty straightforward piece of the budget, as the law spells out exactly what the budget should be. If you do the quick math, you find that 40 and one third times $49,000 is $1,976,333.33. The budget plans to spend $1,990,000 (see page D-3), or nearly $14,000 more than the law allows.

Fourteen thousand dollars may not sound like a lot, but lets take a hypothetical extension of this budgeting and see where it leads. $13,667 (the actual overrun) out of $1.99 million is 0.69%. The total spending plan for the entire state is $30.9 billion. If 0.69% of the $30.9 billion total is in excess of the requirements (like the Senators' salary budget), than that would work out to $211.75 million dollars of, as Bob calls it, slippage.

Can we afford to lose more than $211 million in slippage?

Tags: Jersey, Taxes

Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers, Number Fifty

2006-04-30T22:31:00.000-04:00

Folks, I wanted this to be an extra-special fiftieth anniversary edition of the Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers. I had all kinds of great plans for a themed carnival, featuring a song parody with links to all the submitted posts.

Two problems arose. One, my song parody just never came together. As a matter of fact, it sucked. Here's a sample, judge for yourselves:

Fifty Ways to Blog New Jersey¹

The problem is all inside your head, she said to me
The answer is easy if you take it logically
I'd like to help you in your struggle to be free
There must be fifty ways to blog New Jersey

She said it's really not my habit to intrude
Furthermore I hope my meaning won't be lost or misconstrued
So I repeat myself, at the risk of being crude
There must be fifty ways to blog New Jersey
Fifty ways to blog New Jersey

Refrain:
Just leave her for him, Jim, get a new job, Bob
Don't try a new con, Jon, just listen to me
Trip on the rug, Doug, don't need to discuss much
Pump your own gas, lass, and get yourself free

The second problem is one every blog carnival host should face -- a whole mess of links. Getting them all to fit inside the confines of a single song would have been completely impossible, so I'll just do this the old-fashioned way. We've got a nice mix this week of regular contributors, old friends who've been away, and even friends we hadn't met yet. Let's start with them, after a nice glass of wine while we all get acquainted.

The New Folks

Several blogs were brought to my attention for the first time this week. As far as I can tell, these are their first visits to the Carnival. Please welcome them warmly and with many future links. First up is The Jersey Todd Show, a podcast blog covering the music scene. In Todd's own words from Episode 29, he's got "bands you've heard of, bands that you haven't heard of, bands you're absolutely going to fall in love with."
Corzine Watch take's the governor at his word ("Hold me accountable"), tracking his promises vs. performance. Just yesterday, they covered gas station attendants, speed limits, approval ratings, and college tuition rates. It's amazing what the governor has influence over.
Disconnect the Dots presents "OCD-enhanced analysis of the major flaws that surround us every day," and his submission this week explores the flaws inherent in today's internet.
Finally, Schadenfreude of The Fifth Column ("Bloggas with Attitude") chimes in with A Fistful of Pennies, in which money becomes an issue for some people.

The Prodigal Sons

A few folks who've visited, and even hosted in the past dropped by after long absences. Mr. Bingley of the Coalition of the Swilling starts us off by sharing his life experience with extreme punctuality. Two hours early for a first date?
Dan Riehl, in the meantime, stops blogging national events and news long enough to notice New Jersey's Attorney General. I guess asking her to enforce the law is a bit of a stretch, isn't it?
Next up is Steve Schippert, formerly of The Word Unheard. Steve has a successful new gig at Threatswatch.org, where their motto is "Supporting Security by Enhancing Awareness." Steve sends us a story about Stolen Honor Reclaimed, which is really a story about how milblogs are changing the landscape.

The Usual Suspects™²

Many of our regular contributors have stopped in this week talking about tolerance (The Opinion Mill), loss (Shamrocketship), theft (The Nightfly), shopping (The Art of Getting By), and finance ("D"igital Breakfast). Mike Hill gives us a chapter from his novel (Sluggo Needs a Nap), while Jim expounds on the glut of holidays (Parkway Rest Stop). Kate of Katespot had quite a scare this week, but fortunately Moira's fine.

Dmitri from Cobweb Studios shares another beautiful photographs, while Princess Tata gives us some disturbing images.

Gasoline prices are an understandably hot topic this week, given the near-three-dollar price for regular. Joe's Journal the Center of New Jersey Life, and The Contrarian weigh in.

Joe also highlights the ACE Project, promoting alcohol awareness at Monmouth University. Joe's brothers in the fraternity are taking up a heavy burden trying to prevent acute alcohol poisoning, and should have gotten some recognition for their efforts. Joe's blog was the only media covering their kickoff event -- nicely done, Joe!

Music makes an appearance at The 15.24 Meter Blog, with memories of Kung Fu Fighting and other great songs from 1974. The Rix Mix also talks a bit about Neil Young, folk music, and calendars.

Gil's got literature, travel, and shaving covered at Virtual Memories, and celebrates an important anniversary with some thoughtful introspection. Also in a literary state of mind, Maureen of Jersey Writers passes on a little advice via Dorothy Parker's resume.

Chanice covers New Jersey politics, especially in the big cities. Today's target: Newark and the Housing Authority.

Karl in Atlantic City agrees with President Bush (and Fausta) about the national anthem -- sing it in English! Speaking of Fausta, she doesn't like Airbus' idea of standing up in an airplane for multi-hour flights. I can't say I blame her, those "seats" look more like vertical coffins with windows.

Surprisingly, Sharon and Enlighten don't agree on an issue of taxation. There's more to it than just taxation, but you need to read both posts to really understand the differences.

In items about the news business, Danny Klein notes The Jersey Journal's appearance on the Sopranos, while Jay Lassiter was an officially credentialed blogger for today's protest rally in NYC.

Government intrusion into our daily lives? Bob's got that covered.

On the international front, Jane keeps up her relentless blogging for freedom in Yemen. If half of us worked this hard at our blogging, the newspapers would just fold up and go away.

I've got two final thoughts to leave you with. First, please read my post about the state's "hiring freeze." The numbers will send a chill up (and down) your spine. Then, stop by to see Mel for a good chuckle, and have a great New Jersey week!

Next week's Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers will be hosted by The Fifth Column. As always, submit your links to NJCarnival@gmail.com.

¹ With apologies to Paul Simon (who was born in Jersey)
² With apologies to Jim

Tags: Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers

Carnival 50, not ready for prime time

2006-04-30T08:39:00.000-04:00

Watch the space above this post. I'll git-r-done, but not until late today. Sorry, but Real Life™ is getting in the way.

If you had a link you wanted to get in and thought it was too late, well, it isn't.
Feel free to submit it to NJCarnival@gmail.com.

See you later today!

Tags: Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers

State Personnel Hiring Freeze

2006-04-26T22:26:00.000-04:00

Claim: The State of New Jersey is operating under a freeze on hiring, and is reducing state personnel to save money.
Source, Budget in Brief, p. 1

Reduction of more than 1,000 staff positions with accompanying savings of $54 million through a rigorous hiring freeze, administrative efficiencies and responsible reorganization of select government functions. Limiting the filling of attrited vacancies will yield opportunities to not only control government growth
but also to do more with less by enhancing management efficiencies and streamlining services

Fact:
Under Corzine's budget, the total number of people to be employed by the state in 2007 will be 1.5% higher than in 2006.

Source: Departmental budget details.

Supporting Data:
According to the budget documents submitted by the departments, state employment for 2006 stands at 84,886. 71% are paid through direct state taxes, 16% using federal funds, and 13% using "other" funds. The budget documents explain that "Other includes positions supported by fees or other dedicated resources previously reported as State Supported." [This sounds like doublespeak for a shell game, doesn't it?]
In 2007, the "state supported" headcount will drop by 1.0% (612 personnel). Those paid by federal funds will increase 4.9%, or 661 people, while the "other" category will increase by 8.5% -- 933. The net increase in state employment (and future pension liabilities, no doubt) is 1,331 more people.

Nearly every department increases its total headcount. Only three see decreases: Corrections, Personnel, and the Chief Executive. Those reductions total 164 personnel. The Public Advocate, State, and Community Affairs, on the other hand, each achieve double digit growth in their number of employees. Between them, those three departments add 220 people, more than eliminating the token reductions of other departments.

Proposal:
A true reduction of 1,000 staff positions would mean a state workforce reduction of approximately 1.14%. I would propose that this reduction rate be applied to every department of the government.

My (admittedly broad-brush) plan would actually reduce the number of people the state has on payroll by 1,230 people, and is more than 2,500 fewer than the governor's plan. I don't believe that this is anywhere near enough to restore fiscal sanity to our state, but it is a step in the correct direction.

I don't like to hurl accusations of lying, but the governor's statement above reeks of untruth. This budget contains massive spending increases, unsupportable personnel increases, and blatant lies about the nature of the changes. As has been said before, a reduction in the desired rate of growth does not constitute a spending cut, and a plan which ADDS 1,331 people to the payroll cannot be reconciled with a claim of a "reduction of more than 1,000 staff positions."

It was a grave mistake for the people of New Jersey to place Jon Corzine in Drumthwacket.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget

2006-04-25T07:30:00.000-04:00

I have the honor of hosting the Carnival of the NJ Bloggers this week.

Are you interested in submitting a post to be included in this week's Carnival? All you have to do is to send an email to njcarnival@gmail.com containing a link to one of your posts that you would like included in the Carnival. Or not, but maybe I might pick one of yours anyway. It's really much easier for me if you send me something, and your life should be centered around making my life easier.

Since this is Carnival # 50, I'd like to include at least 50 posts. If you've run across a new blogger from Jersey, please suggest to them that they submit a link.

If I do not hear from you by noon on Saturday, I will assume that you do not wish to be included this week. Don't do like I did last week and wait until 3 minutes before the deadline to submit a link. [Sorry, Anonymous B., but those darn Incas attacked my Greeks in Civ III and I just had to finish exterminating the filthy swine.]

Tags: New Jersey, Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers

Tough Choices?

2006-04-23T12:36:00.000-04:00

As I mentioned in earlier posts, I've been going through the detailed department budgets posted on the New Jersey Office of Management and Budget website. The exercise has been a real eye-opener.

In his address to the legislature, Governor Corzine presented his budget as a series of tough choices.

The task ahead is daunting and not particularly attractive politically, for anyone. That said, the task must go forward -- no matter how tough the choices -- with a readiness to share the sacrifices.

I agree with the governor. Tough choices need to be made, but this budget does not make them. With a few notable exceptions like university funding, the governor has chosen to support the status quo of unrestrained growth. Take a look at the budgets requested by each of the departments (dollars in thousands):

Departments with increases will see an additional $3.1 billion in funding; cuts to individual departments total $493 million. A six-and-a-quarter to one ratio between increases and decreases doesn't seem much of a tough choice to me.

Maybe the tough choices become apparent when you look at what the departments requested vs. what the governor recommended to the legislature. Let's see:

Nope, no touch choices here. Twenty of twenty-two departments got exactly the tax dollars they demanded of the governor. Only Treasury (1.8%) and State (20.1%) saw reductions between their requested and recommended funding levels. Reducing the desired $4.8 billion dollars of growth by less than $350 million is more like tokenism than real fiscal management.

One last thought about the governor's "tough choices." According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, New Jersey Gross State Product grew 3.4% in 2004, and averaged 2.7% annually from 1997-2003. A budget which made tough choices would reduce growth in spending in at least one category, if not all of them, below the rate of economic growth. That doesn't happen here:

In this budget, overall spending grows at nearly three times the growth in our economy. It is irresponsible for the governor to make claims of fiscal responsibility when he proposes a budget that so far exceeds our means.

Tough choices, indeed.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget, Corzine

Carnival of New Jersey Bloggers #49

2006-04-23T09:53:00.000-04:00

No/w/here hosts a festive and friendly potluck Carnival of New Jersey Bloggers #49. Lots of links, good food, and friendly conversation, even between the lefties and righties...

Tags: New Jersey, Carnival of the New Jersey Bloggers

Details, Details II

2006-04-22T13:52:00.000-04:00

I've been going through the details of the state budget, and found this interesting little tidbit of information. In the Budget in Brief (page 80), the governor took credit for a $28,000,000 reduction in one-time funding for UMDNJ. The detailed budget information for the Department of State (pp. D-348-51), however, shows that there's more to the story.
UMDNJ is a huge business, with 2006 operating income projected at $1,166,984,000. In executing its operations, it expects to spend $1,402,723,000 this year, with a net cost to taxpayers of $235,739,000. The university proposed to increase its operating income (from fees, tuition, etc.) by 2.8%, and increase its general operating costs by only 0.3%, saving the taxpayers about $28 million. This seems like a very reasonable business case, and is the way a state enterprise should manage itself. Two-point-five percent productivity improvement is a pretty easy putt for an organization with over a billion dollars of income. When I worked for GE, the business expected each manufacturing plant to generate 4-5% every year.
But the university, being a state institution, cannot run itself like a business. Included in its budget request was a separate line item, titled "Appropriation Funding Difference," calling for an additional $28 million in Grants-in-Aid. It appears that this is the $28 million in one-time expenditure reduction for which the governor took credit.
Of course, UMDNJ didn't stop there. They also included separate line items for Increased Utilities Costs ($10 million), Capital Renewal / Replacement ($15.2 million), and Research Faculty Development ($5 million). Somewhere, either at State or in the governor's office, these additional funds were zeroed out. In addition, this year's general operating budget is being reduced to $1,386,375,000 (1.2%) for 2007.
The net impact of these changes is significant - $79 million less than the school requested. Without those expenditures, the net cost to the taxpayer for each graduate of the university decreases by $47,000. Now if we can get rid of the remaining $151,266 per graduate, we'll be in really good shape.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget, UMDNJ

Details, Details

2006-04-20T23:29:00.000-04:00

One area of the New Jersey budget where Governor Corzine has proposed significant growth is the Department of Children and Families (DCF). The summary of major increases and decreases from the Budget in Brief (page B-65) shows that the governor proposed to spend $50,364,000 more in 2006-07 than projected for current year state operations, plus $64,611,000 more in Grants-in-Aid for "Child Welfare Reform."

I was curious about the nature of the child welfare reform and its costs, so I did a little digging around, and found the DCF budget recommendations.

The Fiscal 2007 Budget for the Department of Children and Families (DCF) totals $974.8 million, an increase of $235.6 million in State funds over the fiscal 2006 adjusted appropriation of $739.3 million for the Department of Human Services’ (DHS) Office of Children Services.

This increase of $235,600,000 is broken down into 3 buckets -- $93,165,000 for direct state services, $132,397,000 for Grants-in-Aid, and $10,000,000 for Capital Construction. Within these three categories, expenditures are identified by program, as shown below.

Direct State Services
Child Protective and Permancy Services
Prevention and Community Partnership Services
Education Services
Child Welfare Training Academy Services and Operations
Safety and Security Services
Administration and Support Services

Grants-in-Aid
Child Protective and Permanency Services
Child Behavioral Health Services
Prevention and Community Partnership Services

Capital Construction
Administration and Support Services

Summing up the totals and looking at how the growth is distributed, it becomes clear that no "tough choices" were made to develop the DCF budget. Across the board, huge increases in spending are planned (click the table below to see).

The topline DCF budget is most disturbing, but not nearly as disturbing as this next little bit.
In Child Protective and Permanency Services, the active caseload expected for 2007 is 58,100 children (page D-35), costing $9,565 for each child. In 2006, the caseload is 59,200 children, driving a cost per child of $7,211. Reaching back into 2005, the caseload was 64,300 children, and the actual spending was $7,453 per child. State spending for Child Protective and Permanency Services, on a per-child basis, has increased over 28% in the last two years, but goes up by nearly 33% this year.

Why the increased cost? Simply put, the program has added a significant number of staffers. In 2004, 3,450 people were employed by the CPPS program. That grew to 4,154 in 2005, and 5,059 in 2006. 2007 headcount isn't available in the budget, but DCF planned for nearly 10% growth in total filled positions, from 6,178 to 6,620. The department budget detail states (page D-36) "The Budget Estimate for fiscal 2007 reflects the number of positions funded and will be allocated by program class upon approval of a revised Child Welfare Reform Plan."

The story this document tells is staggering. The Department of Children and Families obviously does not intend to follow the governor's stated intention (BIB, page B-3) for

Reduction of more than 1,000 staff positions with accompanying savings of $54 million through a rigorous hiring freeze, administrative efficiencies and responsible reorganization of select government functions.

As evidenced by the budgeted personnel comment above, there is no plan (yet) to create a more efficient system of providing protective services for children. This is simply a plan to spend more of our tax dollars as quickly as possible.

Tags: Jersey, Taxes, Budget

AP on Education and NCLB

2006-04-19T21:31:00.000-04:00

The Associated Press, in an article headlined States Omit Minorities' School Scores, engages in a nifty little piece of race-baiting. Check out the lead paragraphs from the story:

Laquanya Agnew and Victoria Duncan share a desk, a love of reading and a passion for learning. But because of a loophole in the No Child Left Behind Act, one second-grader's score in Tennessee counts more than the other's. That is because Laquanya is black, and Victoria is white.
An Associated Press computer analysis has found Laquanya is among nearly 2 million children whose scores aren't counted when it comes to meeting the law's requirement that schools track how students of different races perform on standardized tests.

This tone has carried over into the thoughts and beliefs of high school students.

"It's terrible," said Michael Oshinaya, a senior at Eleanor Roosevelt High School in New York City who was among a group of black students whose scores weren't broken out as a racial category. "We're part of America. We make up America, too. We should be counted as part of America."

If you are part of America, why would you want to be counted separately? Reporting of school test scores in the aggregate tells the system how the school is performing across the board, and allows the school teachers and administration to take action toward helping those students who aren't making the cut. As an individual, knowing the overall average and your own score tells you where you stand. Do you really need to know where you stand versus all the other kids of your own particular minority group? The whole point of NCLB was to force schools to measure their progress, not to serve as another tool for balkanization of the population.

The article does raise a valid point: there is variation from state to state on what is an appropriate group size to exclude from reporting requirements. Clearly, if a minority group in a school is statistically small, it should not be reported separately and used as a measurement of school performance. Take the extreme example of a single black student in an otherwise all-white school. Reporting the subgroup would reveal that one student's scores in a public record. The article spends so much effort on the racial angle, they don't get around to mentioning the state-to-state variation until the 18th paragraph.
In the usual mainstream media fashion, the reporters choose only to share those bits of data that support their claims, and to portray them in the most negative light possible. Take this little tidbit, for example:

Less than 2 percent of white children's scores aren't being counted as a separate category. In contrast, Hispanics and blacks have roughly 10 percent of their scores excluded. More than one-third of Asian scores and nearly half of American Indian scores aren't broken out, AP found.

Restating the same data another way, 90% of black and hispanic students have their test scores reported in separate racial categories, in addition to being reported in the aggregate numbers. In other words (please forgive me for shouting), THE VAST MAJORITY ARE BEING REPORTED.

Not only are they being reported, but it's a good news story. I paid a visit to the National Center for Education Statistics, and pulled up data on 4th-grade mathematics on a national basis. What I found will never be printed in a mainstream media piece - since 1992, black student performance has been improving over 3% per year, compared with about 1.6% per year for white students.

As can be clearly seen in the chart above, the situation is improving. And with 90% of the black student population being included in the reports, it's very difficult to argue that the increased performance is due to statistical manipulation. Note that the white, hispanic, and black lines all follow similar trends.

The collective liberal media wants us to believe that ours is a racist nation, and that we continually seek to put down minorities at the expense of the white majority. It will spin any piece of information to serve its agenda. It's clear, when you look at the data, that the chosen storyline doesn't hold water. Americans should be insulted that the liberal media thinks it can get away with such deception.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Education, Media Bias

Thank God for our Forefathers

2006-04-18T20:48:00.000-04:00

We often forget significant dates in our history as a nation, or the remembrance becomes clouded with modern changes. Yesterday, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts celebrated Patriots' Day, featuring the Boston Marathon and a Red Sox afternoon baseball game. I am aware of no other state that celebrated these events, but they must be remembered.
To help jog your memory, please read Longfellow's Paul Revere's Ride, and remember:

Listen my children and you shall hear
Of the midnight ride of Paul Revere,
On the eighteenth of April, in Seventy-five;
Hardly a man is now alive
Who remembers that famous day and year.

He said to his friend, "If the British march
By land or sea from the town to-night,
Hang a lantern aloft in the belfry arch
Of the North Church tower as a signal light,--
One if by land, and two if by sea;
And I on the opposite shore will be,
Ready to ride and spread the alarm
Through every Middlesex village and farm,
For the country folk to be up and to arm."

Then he said "Good-night!" and with muffled oar
Silently rowed to the Charlestown shore,
Just as the moon rose over the bay,
Where swinging wide at her moorings lay
The Somerset, British man-of-war;
A phantom ship, with each mast and spar
Across the moon like a prison bar,
And a huge black hulk, that was magnified
By its own reflection in the tide.

Meanwhile, his friend through alley and street
Wanders and watches, with eager ears,
Till in the silence around him he hears
The muster of men at the barrack door,
The sound of arms, and the tramp of feet,
And the measured tread of the grenadiers,
Marching down to their boats on the shore.

Then he climbed the tower of the Old North Church,
By the wooden stairs, with stealthy tread,
To the belfry chamber overhead,
And startled the pigeons from their perch
On the sombre rafters, that round him made
Masses and moving shapes of shade,--
By the trembling ladder, steep and tall,
To the highest window in the wall,
Where he paused to listen and look down
A moment on the roofs of the town
And the moonlight flowing over all.

Beneath, in the churchyard, lay the dead,
In their night encampment on the hill,
Wrapped in silence so deep and still
That he could hear, like a sentinel's tread,
The watchful night-wind, as it went
Creeping along from tent to tent,
And seeming to whisper, "All is well!"
A moment only he feels the spell
Of the place and the hour, and the secret dread
Of the lonely belfry and the dead;
For suddenly all his thoughts are bent
On a shadowy something far away,
Where the river widens to meet the bay,--
A line of black that bends and floats
On the rising tide like a bridge of boats.

Meanwhile, impatient to mount and ride,
Booted and spurred, with a heavy stride
On the opposite shore walked Paul Revere.
Now he patted his horse's side,
Now he gazed at the landscape far and near,
Then, impetuous, stamped the earth,
And turned and tightened his saddle girth;
But mostly he watched with eager search
The belfry tower of the Old North Church,
As it rose above the graves on the hill,
Lonely and spectral and sombre and still.
And lo! as he looks, on the belfry's height
A glimmer, and then a gleam of light!
He springs to the saddle, the bridle he turns,
But lingers and gazes, till full on his sight
A second lamp in the belfry burns.

A hurry of hoofs in a village street,
A shape in the moonlight, a bulk in the dark,
And beneath, from the pebbles, in passing, a spark
Struck out by a steed flying fearless and fleet;
That was all! And yet, through the gloom and the light,
The fate of a nation was riding that night;
And the spark struck out by that steed, in his flight,
Kindled the land into flame with its heat.
He has left the village and mounted the steep,
And beneath him, tranquil and broad and deep,
Is the Mystic, meeting the ocean tides;
And under the alders that skirt its edge,
Now soft on the sand, now loud on the ledge,
Is heard the tramp of his steed as he rides.

It was twelve by the village clock
When he crossed the bridge into Medford town.
He heard the crowing of the cock,
And the barking of the farmer's dog,
And felt the damp of the river fog,
That rises after the sun goes down.

It was one by the village clock,
When he galloped into Lexington.
He saw the gilded weathercock
Swim in the moonlight as he passed,
And the meeting-house windows, black and bare,
Gaze at him with a spectral glare,
As if they already stood aghast
At the bloody work they would look upon.

It was two by the village clock,
When he came to the bridge in Concord town.
He heard the bleating of the flock,
And the twitter of birds among the trees,
And felt the breath of the morning breeze
Blowing over the meadow brown.
And one was safe and asleep in his bed
Who at the bridge would be first to fall,
Who that day would be lying dead,
Pierced by a British musket ball.

You know the rest. In the books you have read
How the British Regulars fired and fled,---
How the farmers gave them ball for ball,
From behind each fence and farmyard wall,
Chasing the redcoats down the lane,
Then crossing the fields to emerge again
Under the trees at the turn of the road,
And only pausing to fire and load.

So through the night rode Paul Revere;
And so through the night went his cry of alarm
To every Middlesex village and farm,---
A cry of defiance, and not of fear,
A voice in the darkness, a knock at the door,
And a word that shall echo for evermore!
For, borne on the night-wind of the Past,
Through all our history, to the last,
In the hour of darkness and peril and need,
The people will waken and listen to hear
The hurrying hoof-beats of that steed,
And the midnight message of Paul Revere.

May these men never be forgotten. Without them, our nation never would have been.

NJ Budget - A Libertarian Point of View

2006-04-18T00:27:00.000-04:00

I just ran across this post by Dr. Murray Sabrin, in which he presents the text of his testimony on the budget before the state Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. He's got some interesting ideas about how to fix the state's budget problems.

On education funding:

• Amend the Constitution to abolish the “thorough and efficient” education clause, giving the Legislature control over school spending
• Amend the Constitution preventing the Supreme Court from ordering the Legislature or the executive branch to spend money for any purpose

About the only way to get the Supreme Court out of the school funding business is to explicitly invalidate Abbott and prevent it from coming back.

• Equalize state education aid. Every school district would get the same state aid per student as every other school district

This one I really like. The only truly fair way for the state to fund education is by linking the money to the students, rather than the schools or districts. Of course, it introduces other problems like inflation of attendance records.

• Implement education tax credits for individuals, families and businesses

Tie this to the previous item. Give the individual student or his parents gets a voucher that can be spent at any school in the state. [My, I'm starting to sound like a Libertarian, aren't I?]

On financial management:

• The state should implement forensic accountants Rosenfarb Winters recommendations regarding the Abbott Districts, which would save at least $282 million

Kinda cryptic reference, but I like the idea of saving 9-figure numbers.

• Institute zero based budgeting—all state agencies must justify every dollar it spends

We do this today, except the justification is usually "That's what we spent last year, you got a problem with that?"

On specific taxes:

• Reduce the sales tax by one cent every year for three years

Like it, but I'd go for six rather than three years.

• Reduce the personal income tax and the Corporate Business Tax

This is good, as long as we reduce the marginal rates to stimulate growth, rather than creating some phony scheme that eliminates taxpayers from the rolls. Unfortunately, the Governor has proposed option B.

• Eliminate the income tax on pensions

I don't know that this is such a good thing (see above re: eliminating taxpayers from the rolls)

• Raise the gas tax 20 cents per gallon only for road and bridge projects

More than doubling the gas tax (or any other tax) is a Bad Idea™.

On redistribution schemes:

• Eliminate property tax rebates, saving $1.5 billion per year

Great idea, as long as it's enacted along with the linkage of funds to students.

• Eliminate all state grants to nonprofits

Makes sense to me. I don't want my money funding West Jepepian Cultural Studies or other such nonsense. Many nonprofits do good work, but they all employ professional fundraisers and should not be reliant on state grants. Fee for service paid to nonprofits, however, would probably be a more efficient use of state tax dollars.

• End municipal grants

I don't think that I would completely eliminate them, but I would like to see tighter controls and elimination of favoritism toward committee chair pet projects. Transparency would be nice here.

On specific spending items:

• Begin the transition making the state colleges, Rutgers University, and the University of Medical and Dentistry of New Jersey financially independent

Considering the facts that Rutgers charges $237 per undergraduate credit hour in state ($484 out of state), has 28,000 students enrolled, and requires 120 credit-hours of course work to graduate, one would think they could generate a viable business model without state funding. By my back-of-the-envelope calculations, they take in somewhere around $200 million annually from tuition alone, assuming an 80/20 split between in-state and out and 4-5 years to graduate.

• Kill the Transportation Fund bond issue

All for this one, as well. The debt liabilities in the TTF need to be taken out of hide, like they should have been when they were incurred.

On fixing the business climate:

• End state government grants, loans, subsidies for businesses
• Abolish unnecessary business regulations

Absolutely. The state has no business in business. Set a low tax rate, keep it stable, get out of the way and watch things take off.

On general government reforms:

• Eliminate dual office holding

How the heck did we end up with this albatross, anyway?

• Eliminate pensions for part-time government employees

I spend at least an hour a year on paperwork for the benefit of the state, and in return I get a check. Is that enough to qualify me as a state employee for pension purposes?

• Eliminate pensions of legislators

I'm absolutely in favor of doing away with the permanent politician. Killing these pensions would remove a significant incentive for those in office to stay in office.

It's not surprising that Sabrin's ideas haven't gotten more attention, given that he was 51st on a list of 74 people testifying April 3rd, and has been a less-than-successful candidate for multiple statewide offices (Governor 97, Senate 00). I'll leave you with Sabrin's thoughts on the true source of our problem, with which I wholeheartedly agree.

The culture of entitlement and redistribution of income is so ingrained in the collective psyche of policymakers and many segments of the public, that few individuals can conceive of a society based on low taxes, less spending, less regulation, and limited government. Instead, too many of our citizens believe government’s prime responsibility is to be the social worker, the healthcare provider and the source of income for many of our families.
Policymakers must embrace economist Ludwig von Mises’s insight: “The government and its chiefs do not have the powers of the mythical Santa Claus. They cannot spend except by taking out of the pockets of some people for the benefit of others.”

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget

The Latest on New Jersey's Budget

2006-04-15T10:28:00.000-04:00

Tags: Jersey, Taxes

More on the New Jersey Budget

2006-04-14T18:21:00.000-04:00

Enlighten New Jersey spends a little blog real estate to remind us that "There Are No Cuts In Governor Corzine's Budget."

Governor Jon Corzine and his supporters claim his proposed $30.9 state budget for 2007 is a fair and reasonable plan while acknowledging spending will climb 9.2% over last year’s budget of $28.3 billion. No matter how you try to spin it, Corzine’s budget will increase state spending by $2.6 billion.

Corzine has explained $1.63 billion of the increase with his proposed $1.1 billion payment to the state worker pension fund and his request for a $530 million increase in property tax rebates. So where is the remaining billion dollars in additional spending going? It’s being spent on the Governor’s priorities.

Conveniently, the Governor's Budget in Brief provides a detailed list of different budget line items that have either increased or decreased. Enlighten pointed out a few highlights, but some summary data would also be useful to emphasize the magnitude of the problem.

State Operations - $268,887,000 increase

16 line items increased, totaling $690,608,000
39 line items decreased, totaling $421,731,000

Two of the decreases, totalling $125 million, allegedly shift costs to the federal government. Given that New Jersey typically gets back 57 cents on every dollar sent to the feds, I am highly skeptical about the opportunity here.
Eighteen, for $108 million, come from "efficiencies" in each of the departments. There is no detail, as far as I can tell, about how the governor plans to make the bureaucracy more efficient. To gain efficiency in a business sense (our governor is a businessman, after all), we either have to produce more government services for the same cost, or produce the same government services for a lower cost. Enlighten points out that the state employs 154,700 people. 80,900 are full-time employees, which means that each full-time employee must produce an extra $1,340 worth of services to achieve $108 million in "efficiencies." At $40 / hour, that's 33.5 hours of extra work for each employee, or the equivalent of of 1,355 man-years of work. Think the unions will stand for that?
Four items worth $95 million aren't really spending decreases, because they reduce fund balances (Prescription Fund, Division of Pensions/Pension Fund, Governor's Contingency Funds, and Contingency Funds). This exactly the kind of budget trick the governor told us he wouldn't use.
Four line items, totalling $28 million, appear to be related to staffing reductions, including the governor's salary. It was so kind of him to sacrifice his $250,000 salary in the face of a $4,500,000,000 hole -- we're 0.0055% of the way there now!
Finally, there's a one-time savings similar to the campaign funding Enlighten pointed out -- we are "saving" $600,000 by not funding the Governor's transition as we did last year.

Grants-in-Aid - $885,514,000 increase

36 items increased, totaling $1,708,960,000
76 items decreased, totaling $823,446,000

The governor finds more creative ways to give away our money. I suppose I should be encouraged by the $250,000 reduction to Weehawken Arts. The largest Grants-in Aid "reduction" is $215,000,000 attributed to the Hospital Provider Assessment. This is really a half of a new, $430,000,000 tax (Budget in Brief, page 6). Calling it a cost reduction is nothing more than a big fat lie.

State Aid - $1,007,679,000 increase

15 items increased, totaling $1,165,754,000
19 items decreased, totaling $158,075,000

The big increase, $744,117,000 to the Teacher's Pension and Annuity Fund, dwarfs all of the savings combined. Even excluding this pension funding, the increases are still more than 2.5 times the decreases. This is a "hard choices" budget? Hardly.

The bottom line, again from Enlighten New Jersey's post:

So it goes throughout Corzine's budget – a small cut here and a large increase somewhere else in his budget plan In the end, Governor Corzine has funded his priorities and his priorities are costing the state’s taxpayers an additional $2.6 billion.

Tags: Jersey, Taxes, Budget

Smackdown

2006-04-11T22:34:00.000-04:00

Chanice at New Jersey for Change really lays into Steven Pressman for his article calling for higher income taxes in New Jersey. She says to read the whole article, and you should, but here's his opening salvo to wet your whistle:

In 1993, when President Clinton took office, the U.S. economy faced an enormous budget deficit. His response was twofold. First, he increased income taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Second, he increased the tax on a gallon of gasoline. To help poorer families pay for the higher gas taxes, he increased the earned income tax credit — a tax break for low-income households where someone works.
The result of these actions was the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Unemployment dropped to below 4 percent, a level rarely seen in this country. And perhaps most important of all, a massive government budget deficit became a huge budget surplus, which has since been squandered by President Bush.

I always love it when liberals engage in the fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc. It's even more fun when they include no data to support their assertions. Here's what Pressman leaves out. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real economic growth was accelerating throughout 1993, from 0.12% in the 1st quarter to 1.35% in the 4th. In the 8 quarters leading up to implementation of Clinton's marginal rate increase, average real growth was 0.82% per quarter. In the 8 quarters following (Q1 1994 to Q4 1995), average real growth was 0.76%. The rate increase did not create "the longest economic expansion in U.S. history," it slowed an expansion already underway. Here are some handy charts to illustrate. The first shows real GDP growth from the BEA data linked above, while the second is the percentage of the population employed according to the Household Survey, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As shown in the national data, increasing marginal income tax rates tends to suppress, not encourage, real economic growth. Pressman asserts that higher tax rates cause economic growth, which is demonstrably false. The rest of his argument for curing New Jersey's budget ills, based on this fallacy, doesn't hold water.

The only way out of this mess is to grow spending at a slower rate than we grow revenue. Until the governor proposes (and the legislature enacts) a plan that will constrain the spending side of the equation, we will never win.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget

The New Jersey Budget Problem

2006-04-08T10:03:00.000-04:00

In an article headlined New Jersey lawmakers unlikely to get last-minute budget reprieve, Tom Hester Jr. of the Associated Press writes:

Much like prisoners awaiting execution, state lawmakers in recent years have spent budget deliberations waiting for last minute reprieves in the form of unanticipated tax collections.
Last year, for instance, an unforeseen $1 billion increase in tax revenue helped legislators balance the budget without having to ax most property tax rebates or approve $150 million in proposed new taxes.
But lawmakers are realizing that the reality of New Jersey's fiscal mess, coupled with the state's sluggish economy, offer little hope for a late spring windfall.
That means that _ just as Gov. Jon S. Corzine has suggested _ they may have to actually cut programs and increases taxes as the July 1 deadline to approve an approximately $31 billion budget nears.

As usual, the NJ state legislature is hoping for some way to spend more of our tax dollars. In the article, Democrat Lou Greenwald, chairman of the Assembly Budget Committee, discusses his plan to reduce spending:

"What our goal will be is to find more waste and better efficiencies"

Pretty strong, isn't it? I can't wait to see how the Assembly finds more efficient ways to waste our money.
Assembly Republicans aren't much better.

Assemblyman Joseph Malone, R-Burlington, wants to eliminate a state grant program that this fiscal year provided $3,000 grants for activities such as duck decoy carving, basket making and Indian music lessons.
"It may not be a lot of money, but it's symptomatic of the disregard that some people in state government have for the financial problems we have in the state of New Jersey," Malone said. "It's just incomprehensible."

I suppose it's progress to see an actual proposed cut, but couldn't they be a little more aggressive about it? I'd like to see some true reform, with a bold vision for change rather than sniping around the edges.
For example, they could cap state spending on education at some percentage of Gross State Product. Any excess funds collected through the income tax could be returned to the taxpayers through annual "rebates" or even - perish the thought - rate reductions. Even if they set it at today's level, if they would distribute the funds equitably amongst the school districts we would generate huge benefits for most New Jersey property tax payers.
Unfortunately, our New Jersey Republican Party doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to create, much less hold on to, any kind of vision.

Tags: New Jersey, Taxes, Budget, Pork

Illegal Aliens

2006-04-02T14:23:00.000-04:00

Jim at Parkway Rest Stop tells the story of Hector, inspired by the things he's been reading in the news. Amazing how a little dialogue can clarify an issue.
My take on this is simple: in general, immigration is a good thing. We need to continually refill the melting pot of America with new materials, or we won't be able to sustain our growth and prosperity. It must, however, be done within the law, and towards the end of becoming American. Those who go outisde the system are violating our laws, and should not be rewarded for that violation. They have no "right" to the benefits earned by those with the determination to become citizens.

NJ Budget - Expanding Health Insurance for Children II

2006-03-26T11:32:00.000-05:00

In our last installment, I noted that

Family Care has added 278,928 kids and 141,516 adults due to the enactment of the "Family Health Care Coverage Act," boosting its penetration to 25% of the total market for children's health insurance.

The Governor's budget proposes spending $5,000,000 to recruit 50,000 more children into the program. That's $100 for each and every child added.

Enlighten New Jersey and Paul Nelson of NJ Fiscal Folly have uncovered some additional facts showing that this increase will do nothing for our fiscal problems. First, in the comments on my first post, Enlighten notes a line from the Budget in Brief:

"$70 million – Medicaid and a FamilyCare shortfall caused by higher than anticipated enrollments, increased drug costs, and a shift to the General Fund of costs that are no longer supported by the Health Care Subsidy Fund."

Based on this data, we could conclude that the additional 280,000 kids cost the state at least $250 each. Spending $5,000,000 to recruit 50,000 more would thus cost the state an additional $12,500,000. for a total expenditure of $17,500,000. This is not exactly a wise choice in the eyes of the typical investment banker, but there may be more to it than that.

Fortunately, Paul Nelson found that there is more to it. He researched the legislation that caused the drastic increase in FY06 costs, and found this [emphasis mine]:

The Office of Legislative Services (OLS), which provides professional, nonpartisan staff support services to the NJ Legislature, analyzed various costs related to the NJ FamilyCare program (go to page 6 of this June 2005 Senate Budget Committee report). The OLS found that the state spends $113 per month for each child in the program. For every additional 10,000 children, the gross annual cost (paid with both state and Federal funds) would be $13.6 million. Thus, the cost of an additional 50,000 children would be $68 million per year, not $14.3 million as Corzine claims in his proposed budget.

One thing that Paul missed, is that the $14,300,000 increase is not all intended to pay for the recurring cost. As I noted above, $5,000,000 of that total is intended to support growing a losing business, and the governor has irresponsibly planned an additional $9,300,000 for an additional expense which he surely knows will be significantly larger.

Given that this expenditure cannot possibly be motivated by fiscal reasons, I can only conclude that it is being made for political ones. The far left has long been enamored with the failing single-payer health care system of Canada and other quasi-socialist states. They attempted to enact one nationwide early in the Clinton administration. I believe Governor Corzine's goal is to create such a system here in New Jersey. Why else would he be spending the taxpayers' money in an attempt to corner the health insurance market for children? He's already got 24% of the 18-and-under crowd locked in, and wants to expand his "customer" base by 10% this year.

Governor Corzine, the state is losing money on each and every person added. Children are not a loss-leader, and you can't make it up on volume. Drop your plan to take over state-wide health insurance.

Tags: New Jersey, Budget, Corzine, Health Care, Children